Search results for " Probability"
showing 10 items of 2176 documents
Conflict in Somalia: impact on child undernutrition
2017
Background: In Somalia, protracted conflict and persistent drought have caused population displacement and livelihood destruction. As a result, there is widespread child malnutrition. We aimed to determine the effects of conflict on wasting and stunting among children aged 6-59 months in Somalia 2007–2010.\ud \ud Methods: Data were from household nutritional surveys from 2007 to 2010, with 1,066 clusters covering 73,778 children, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project and remote sensing. We used Bayesian hierarchical spatial-temporal regression methods to examine the effects of conflict on wasting and stunting. A preliminary model included individual, household and envir…
Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis
2014
Using administrative records data from Spanish Social Security, we analyse the pattern and the determinants of individual unemployment benefit spell durations. We compare a period of expansion (2005-2007) and the recent recession (2009-2011), allowing us to determine the impact of the current crisis. In line with the duality that characterizes the Spanish labour market, we distinguish between exits to a stable job and exits to an unstable job. We estimate a Multivariate Mixed Proportional Hazard Model for each time period. We find similar effects of the crisis for stable and unstable jobs, which are particularly strong in the first year of the spell. Moreover, slight negative duration depen…
Weak convergence to the coalescent in neutral population models
1999
For a large class of neutral population models the asymptotics of the ancestral structure of a sample of n individuals (or genes) is studied, if the total population size becomes large. Under certain conditions and under a well-known time-scaling, which can be expressed in terms of the coalescence probabilities, weak convergence in D E ([0,∞)) to the coalescent holds. Further the convergence behaviour of the jump chain of the ancestral process is studied. The results are used to approximate probabilities which are of certain interest in applications, for example hitting probabilities.
A characterization of the distribution of a weighted sum of gamma variables through multiple hypergeometric functions
2008
Applying the theory on multiple hypergeometric functions, the distribution of a weighted convolution of Gamma variables is characterized through explicit forms for the probability density function, the distribution function and the moments about the origin. The main results unify some previous contributions in the literature on nite convolution of Gamma distributions. We deal with computational aspects that arise from the representations in terms of multiple hypergeometric functions, introducing a new integral representation for the fourth Lauricella function F (n) D and its con uent form (n) 2 , suitable for numerical integration; some graphics of the probability density function and distr…
Generalized Bayesian Pursuit: A Novel Scheme for Multi-Armed Bernoulli Bandit Problems
2011
In the last decades, a myriad of approaches to the multi-armed bandit problem have appeared in several different fields. The current top performing algorithms from the field of Learning Automata reside in the Pursuit family, while UCB-Tuned and the e-greedy class of algorithms can be seen as state-of-the-art regret minimizing algorithms. Recently, however, the Bayesian Learning Automaton (BLA) outperformed all of these, and other schemes, in a wide range of experiments. Although seemingly incompatible, in this paper we integrate the foundational learning principles motivating the design of the BLA, with the principles of the so-called Generalized Pursuit algorithm (GPST), leading to the Gen…
Selectivity in Probabilistic Causality: Where Psychology Runs Into Quantum Physics
2011
Given a set of several inputs into a system (e.g., independent variables characterizing stimuli) and a set of several stochastically non-independent outputs (e.g., random variables describing different aspects of responses), how can one determine, for each of the outputs, which of the inputs it is influenced by? The problem has applications ranging from modeling pairwise comparisons to reconstructing mental processing architectures to conjoint testing. A necessary and sufficient condition for a given pattern of selective influences is provided by the Joint Distribution Criterion, according to which the problem of "what influences what" is equivalent to that of the existence of a joint distr…
Anatomy of a grammatical tone
2018
Abstract“Induced Creaky Tone (ICT)” is a grammatical tone in Burmese. It is the result of a process by which Low or High tone is changed into Creaky tone. This alternation is multifunctional, and one of its functions is possessor marking. This paper demonstrates several well-distinguished conditions of different nature and different domain for this tonal alternation. ICT is primarily induced by syntax, varies due to pragmatic factors, occurs only on the shared right boundary of phrases and stem forms, and its phonological condition has a domain stretching to the left boundary of the prosodic word. A comprehensive account of such conditions provides the basis for a grammatical analysis which…
Facebookland: o mundo bizarro-linguístico
2019
Abstract This article investigates the dynamics of contemporary Romanian, focusing on various linguistic structures typically used on social network sites, through which the specific content and interaction strategies are being deployed in virtual communities. The article is part of a larger project devoted to the study of linguistic impoverishment (affecting both the vocabulary and the grammatical structure of the language), social networks being only one of the areas where these “uglified” linguistic structures come from: the mass-media (both print and broadcast), advertising (outdoor, indoor, television commercials), Internet forums, corporate jargon, etc. The structures under scrutiny a…
Imputation of posterior linkage probability relations reveals a significant influence of structural 3D constraints on linkage disequilibrium
2018
Genetic association studies have become increasingly important in unraveling the genetics of diseases or complex traits. Despite their value for modern genetics, conflicting conclusions often arise through the difficulty of confirming and replicating experimental results. We argue that this problem is largely based on the application of statistical relation measures that are not appropriate for genomic data analysis and demonstrate that the standard measures used for Genome-wide association studies or genomics linkage analysis bear a statistic bias. This may come from the violation of underlying assumptions (such as independence or stationarity) as well as from other conceptual limitations …
From $1$ to $6$: a finer analysis of perturbed branching Brownian motion
2020
The logarithmic correction for the order of the maximum for two-speed branching Brownian motion changes discontinuously when approaching slopes $\sigma_1^2=\sigma_2^2=1$ which corresponds to standard branching Brownian motion. In this article we study this transition more closely by choosing $\sigma_1^2=1\pm t^{-\alpha}$ and $\sigma_2^2=1\pm t^{-\alpha}$. We show that the logarithmic correction for the order of the maximum now smoothly interpolates between the correction in the iid case $\frac{1}{2\sqrt 2}\ln(t),\;\frac{3}{2\sqrt 2}\ln(t)$ and $\frac{6}{2\sqrt 2}\ln(t)$ when $0<\alpha<\frac{1}{2}$. This is due to the localisation of extremal particles at the time of speed change which depen…