Search results for "Prévisibilité"

Les vagues de chaleur au Sahel : caractérisation, mécanismes, prévisibilité.

2016

The mechanisms controlling Sahelian heat wave (HW) variability are examined on the period 1979-2014 using the GSOD observational database and ERA-Interim reanalyses. HW events are analyzed through all terms of the atmospheric energy balance, showing a predominant role of incoming shortwave radiation on daily maximum temperature (Tx) and atmospheric water vapor on minimum temperature (Tn). The low-frequency warming trend, not explained by the previous terms, is thought to relate to the increase of greenhouse gases concentrations, due to anthropogenic emissions. The predictability of Sahelian HW events is assessed for lead times reaching up to 15 days. The model's skill, biases and uncertaint…