Search results for "probability"

Analysis of DNA sequence variation within marine species using Beta-coalescents

2013

We apply recently developed inference methods based on general coalescent processes to DNA sequence data obtained from various marine species. Several of these species are believed to exhibit so-called shallow gene genealogies, potentially due to extreme reproductive behaviour, e.g. via Hedgecock's "reproduction sweepstakes". Besides the data analysis, in particular the inference of mutation rates and the estimation of the (real) time to the most recent common ancestor, we briefly address the question whether the genealogies might be adequately described by so-called Beta coalescents (as opposed to Kingman's coalescent), allowing multiple mergers of genealogies. The choice of the underlying…

Parent-Child Physical Resemblance as Cues of Man’s Paternity

2019

The article presents the hypothesis that in the formation of judgements about a man’s biological fatherhood based on similarity of physical characteristics, people may take into consideration not only the similarity of father to child, but also of mother to child. The objective of the experiment was to conduct an initial investigation of that assumption. In the experiment, participants were presented with descriptions in which information was manipulated concerning the similarity of child to mother vs. to father vs. to neither of them. A total of 312 students of both sexes took participation in the experiment, having agreed to take part in a short psychological study immediately after class…

COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF SEVERAL MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR MANAGEMENT OF CONTAMINATED SEDIMENTS

2007

Over the past several decades, environmental decision-making strategies have evolved into increasingly more sophisticated, information-intensive, and complexapproaches including expert judgment, cost-benefit analysis, toxicological risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, and a number of methods forincorporating public and stakeholder values. This evolution has led to an improved array of decision-making aids, including the development of Multi-CriteriaDecision Analysis (MCDA) tools that offer a scientifically sound decision analytical framework. The existence of different MCDA methods and the availability of corresponding software contribute to the possibility of practical implementat…

SMAA in Robustness Analysis

2016

Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a simulation based method for discrete multicriteria decision aiding problems where information is uncertain, imprecise, or partially missing. In SMAA, different kind of uncertain information is represented by probability distributions. Because SMAA considers simultaneously the uncertainty in all parameters, it is particularly useful for robustness analysis. Depending on the problem setting, SMAA determines all possible rankings or classifications for the alternatives, and quantifies the possible results in terms of probabilities. This chapter describes SMAA in robustness analysis using a real-life decision problem as an example. Bas…

The role of water in hemoglobin function and stability

1993

ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF AQUACULTURE INVESTMENTS UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA

2014

This study aims to analyze, from a technical and ec onomic point of view, the choice between alternative investments in aquaculture under condit ions of risk and uncertainty. In particular, a comparative analysis has been conducted between an inshore and an offshore farm producing European sea bass in the Mediterranean Sea. The app lied model refers to the theory of subjective probability, assigning a different probability to e xpected incomes during the investment period. Resul ts show an economic convenience of inshore with respect to offshore farming.

Equivalence of the Pecka–Ponec Correlation Probability and the Statistical F Significance for MLR Models

2004

In an article of this journal Pecka and Ponec [J. Math. Chem. 27 (2000) 13] have proposed, by means of a probability calculation, a method to evaluate the statistical importance of correlations obtained from multilinear regression equations involving an arbitrary number of experimental points and parameters. Here, it is demonstrated how this probability exactly coincides with a more general concept: the confidence probability of an F distribution having the appropriate degrees of freedom.

Multivariate nonparametric tests in a randomized complete block design

2003

AbstractIn this paper multivariate extensions of the Friedman and Page tests for the comparison of several treatments are introduced. Related unadjusted and adjusted treatment effect estimates for the multivariate response variable are also found and their properties discussed. The test statistics and estimates are analogous to the traditional univariate methods. In test constructions, the univariate ranks are replaced by multivariate spatial ranks (J. Nonparam. Statist. 5 (1995) 201). Asymptotic theory is developed to provide approximations for the limiting distributions of the test statistics and estimates. Limiting efficiencies of the tests and treatment effect estimates are found in the…

Uncertainty evaluation of design rainfall for urban flood risk analysis

2011

A reliable and long dataset describing urban flood locations, volumes and depths would be an ideal prerequisite for assessing flood frequency distributions. However, data are often piecemeal and long-term hydraulic modelling is often adopted to estimate floods from historical rainfall series. Long-term modelling approaches are time- and resource-consuming, and synthetically designed rainfalls are often used to estimate flood frequencies. The present paper aimsto assess the uncertainty of such an approach and for suggesting improvements in thedefinition of synthetic rainfall data for flooding frequency analysis. According to this aim, a multivariate statistical analysis based on a copulameth…

Pretest-Posttest-Posttest Multilevel IRT Modeling of Competence Growth of Students in Higher Education in Germany

2016

Longitudinal research in higher education faces several challenges. Appropriate methods of analyzing competence growth of students are needed to deal with those challenges and thereby obtain valid results. In this article, a pretest-posttest-posttest multivariate multilevel IRT model for repeated measures is introduced which is designed to address educational research questions according to a German research project. In this model, dependencies between repeated observations of the same students are considered not, as usual, by clustering observations within participants but rather by clustering observations within semesters. Estimation of the model is conducted within a Bayesian framework. …