Search results for "probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Embedding Quantum into Classical: Contextualization vs Conditionalization
2014
We compare two approaches to embedding joint distributions of random variables recorded under different conditions (such as spins of entangled particles for different settings) into the framework of classical, Kolmogorovian probability theory. In the contextualization approach each random variable is "automatically" labeled by all conditions under which it is recorded, and the random variables across a set of mutually exclusive conditions are probabilistically coupled (imposed a joint distribution upon). Analysis of all possible probabilistic couplings for a given set of random variables allows one to characterize various relations between their separate distributions (such as Bell-type ine…
Influence Functions and Efficiencies of k-Step Hettmansperger–Randles Estimators for Multivariate Location and Regression
2016
In Hettmansperger and Randles (Biometrika 89:851–860, 2002) spatial sign vectors were used to derive simultaneous estimators of multivariate location and shape. Oja (Multivariate nonparametric methods with R. Springer, New York, 2010) proposed a similar approach for the multivariate linear regression case. These estimators are highly robust and have under general assumptions a joint limiting multinormal distribution. The estimates are easy to compute using fixed-point algorithms. There are however no exact proofs for the convergence of these algorithms. The existence and uniqueness of the solutions also still remain unproven although we believe that they hold under general conditions. To ci…
Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models
2015
Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating a set of 20 high cap stocks traded at the Italian Stock Exchange, we find that there is a large number of high frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these jumps is described neither by a multivariate Poisson nor by a multivariate Hawkes model. We introduce a Hawkes one factor model which is able to capture simultaneously the time clustering of jumps and the high synchronization of jumps across assets.
Testing Equality of Multiple Power Spectral Density Matrices
2018
This paper studies the existence of optimal invariant detectors for determining whether P multivariate processes have the same power spectral density. This problem finds application in multiple fields, including physical layer security and cognitive radio. For Gaussian observations, we prove that the optimal invariant detector, i.e., the uniformly most powerful invariant test, does not exist. Additionally, we consider the challenging case of close hypotheses, where we study the existence of the locally most powerful invariant test (LMPIT). The LMPIT is obtained in the closed form only for univariate signals. In the multivariate case, it is shown that the LMPIT does not exist. However, the c…
MuTE: a MATLAB toolbox to compare established and novel estimators of the multivariate transfer entropy.
2014
A challenge for physiologists and neuroscientists is to map information transfer between components of the systems that they study at different scales, in order to derive important knowledge on structure and function from the analysis of the recorded dynamics. The components of physiological networks often interact in a nonlinear way and through mechanisms which are in general not completely known. It is then safer that the method of choice for analyzing these interactions does not rely on any model or assumption on the nature of the data and their interactions. Transfer entropy has emerged as a powerful tool to quantify directed dynamical interactions. In this paper we compare different ap…
Second-order interaction in a Trivariate Generalized Gamma Distribution
2004
The concept of second- (and higher-) order interaction is widely used in categorical data analysis, where it proves useful for explaining the interdependence among three (or more) variables. Its use seems to be less common for continuous multivariate distributions, most likely owing to the predominant role of the Multivariate Normal distribution, for which any interaction involving more than two variables is necessarily zero. In this paper we explore the usefulness of a second-order interaction measure for studying the interdependence among three continuous random variables, by applying it to a trivariate Generalized Gamma distribution proposed by Bologna(2000).
Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models
2011
Abstract This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters’ model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection crite…
Prediction of chromatographic properties of organophosphorus insecticides by molecular connectivity
2000
A study is reported of the relationship between theR F values for a group of organophosphorus insecticides obtained by thin layer chromatography and a series of topological descriptors. By using multivariate regression, the corresponding connectivity functions were obtained, which had been selected on the basis of their respective statistical parameters: multiple correlation coefficient (r), standard error of estimate (s), F-Snedecor values and statistical significance (Student’s t). Regression analysis of the connectivity functions can predict the elution behaviour of any structurally similar derivative of this group of compounds with different stationary and mobile phases. Stability studi…
Locally optimal invariant detector for testing equality of two power spectral densities
2018
This work addresses the problem of determining whether two multivariate random time series have the same power spectral density (PSD), which has applications, for instance, in physical-layer security and cognitive radio. Remarkably, existing detectors for this problem do not usually provide any kind of optimality. Thus, we study here the existence under the Gaussian assumption of optimal invariant detectors for this problem, proving that the uniformly most powerful invariant test (UMPIT) does not exist. Thus, focusing on close hypotheses, we show that the locally most powerful invariant test (LMPIT) only exists for univariate time series. In the multivariate case, we prove that the LMPIT do…
Non-Parametric Rank Statistics for Spectral Power and Coherence
2019
AbstractDespite advances in multivariate spectral analysis of neural signals, the statistical inference of measures such as spectral power and coherence in practical and real-life scenarios remains a challenge. The non-normal distribution of the neural signals and presence of artefactual components make it difficult to use the parametric methods for robust estimation of measures or to infer the presence of specific spectral components above the chance level. Furthermore, the bias of the coherence measures and their complex statistical distributions are impediments in robust statistical comparisons between 2 different levels of coherence. Non-parametric methods based on the median of auto-/c…