Recent Change—Atmosphere
This chapter examines past and present studies of variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period; roughly the past 200 years. The variables addressed are large-scale circulation, pressure and wind, surface air temperature, precipitation and radiative properties (clouds, solar radiation, and sunshine duration). Temperature has increased everywhere in the North Sea region, especially in spring and in the north. Precipitation has increased in the north and decreased in the south. There has been a north-eastward shift in storm tracks, which agrees with climate model projections. Due to large internal variability, it is not clear which a…
Past and Current Climate Change
This section describes long-term observed climatic changes in atmospheric parameters. The focus is on surface climate conditions, but changes in atmospheric circulation are discussed as they often are behind climatic variability seen on regional and local scales. For a summary introduction on mean atmospheric states and conditions in the Baltic Sea Basin see Annex 1.2 with sections on the general atmospheric circulation (A.1.2.1), surface air temperature (A.1.2.2), precipitation (A.1.2.3), clouds (A.1.2.4), and global radiation (A.1.2.5).
Precipitation pattern in the Baltic countries under the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation and local landscape factors
The main objectives of the study are to analyse the mean precipitation pattern in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and the influence of local landscape factors on it, to derive a regionalization, i.e. select regions having coherent fluctuations in precipitation, and to analyse relationships between precipitation and characteristics of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Monthly precipitation data from 123 stations in the Baltic countries from 1966 to 2005 are analysed in relation to 52 landscape variables and 13 circulation variables. The landscape variables characterize landscape around the meteorological stations: land cover, land surface elevation, distance from the…
Recent Change—Terrestrial Cryosphere
This chapter compiles and assesses information on recent and current change within the terrestrial cryosphere of the Baltic Sea drainage basin. Findings are based on long-term observations. Snow cover extent (SCE), duration and amount have shown a widespread decrease although there is large interannual and regional variation. Few data are available on changes in snow structural properties. There is no evidence for a recent change in the frequency or severity of snow-related extreme events. There has been a decrease in glacier coverage in Sweden and glacier ice thickness in inland Scandinavia. The European permafrost is warming, and there has been a northward retreat of the southern boundary…
Long-term changes in drought indices in eastern and central Europe
This study analyses long-term changes in drought indices (Standardised Precipitation Index—SPI, Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index—SPEI) at 1 and 3?months scales at 182 stations in 11 central and eastern European countries during 1949–2018. For comparative purposes, the necessary atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) to obtain SPEI was calculated using two methods, Hargreaves-Samani (SPEIH) and Penman-Monteith (SPEIP). The results show some relevant changes and tendencies in the drought indices. Statistically significant increase in SPI and SPEI during the cold season (November–March), reflecting precipitation increase, was found in the northern part of the study region, in …