0000000000140299
AUTHOR
Antonio Caselles-moncho
An empirical comparison of cross-impact models for forecasting sales
Abstract This paper compares a set of four cross-impact models: (1) additive, (2) likelihood multiplier, (3) R-space, and (4) a model constructed by the author. This is done by examining a forecasting problem encountered by an industrial firm. The forecasting problem was to study the market trend in order to decide whether to expand the production capacity of a ceramics plant. In spite of their different theoretical premises, the models yielded similar results. However, only the R-space model produced results that differed from the others. The paper also suggests a method that should avoid some internal contradictions of the cross-impact models.
Dynamic simulation model of a coal thermoelectric plant with a flue gas desulphurisation system
Abstract In this paper a Dynamic Simulation Model has been used to present the likely responses of the electricity industries’ latest perturbations such as: changes in environmental regulations, international fuel market evolution, restriction on fuel supply and increase on fuel prices, liberalisation of the European Electricity Market, and the results of applying energy policies and official tools such as taxes and emission allowances. The case under study refers to the Teruel Power Plant, built after the 1970s oil crisis to ensure national electricity supply; burning domestically produced coal in order to ensure local mining activity. The Teruel Power Plant has made relevant investments i…