showing 4 related works from this author
A statistical model for predicting the inter-annual variability of birch pollen abundance in Northern and North-Eastern Europe
2018
The paper suggests a methodology for predicting next-year seasonal pollen index (SPI, a sum of daily-mean pollen concentrations) over large regions and demonstrates its performance for birch in Northern and North-Eastern Europe. A statistical model is constructed using meteorological, geophysical and biological characteristics of the previous year). A cluster analysis of multi-annual data of European Aeroallergen Network (EAN) revealed several large regions in Europe, where the observed SPI exhibits similar patterns of the multi-annual variability. We built the model for the northern cluster of stations, which covers Finland, Sweden, Baltic States, part of Belarus, and, probably, Russia and…
Alder pollen in Finland ripens after a short exposure to warm days in early spring, showing biennial variation in the onset of pollen ripening
2017
Abstract We developed a temperature sum model to predict the daily pollen release of alder, based on pollen data collected with pollen traps at seven locations in Finland over the years 2000–2014. We estimated the model parameters by minimizing the sum of squared errors (SSE) of the model, with weights that put more weight on binary recognition of daily presence or absence of pollen. The model results suggest that alder pollen ripens after a couple of warm days in February, while the whole pollen release period typically takes up to 4 weeks. We tested the model residuals against air humidity, precipitation and wind speed, but adding these meteorological features did not improve the model pr…
Alder pollen in Finland ripens after a short exposure to warm days in early spring, showing biennial variation in the onset of pollen ripening
2017
We developed a temperature sum model to predict the daily pollen release of alder, based on pollen data collected with pollen traps at seven locations in Finland over the years 2000–2014. We estimated the model parameters by minimizing the sum of squared errors (SSE) of the model, with weights that put more weight on binary recognition of daily presence or absence of pollen. The model results suggest that alder pollen ripens after a couple of warm days in February, while the whole pollen release period typically takes up to 4 weeks. We tested the model residuals against air humidity, precipitation and wind speed, but adding these meteorological features did not improve the model prediction …
MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe
2015
Abstract. This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more…