Modeling temporal and spatial colony‐site dynamics in a long‐lived seabird

We studied the determinants of colony site dynamics in Audouin's gull, Larus audouinii, breeding in a small archipelago of the western Mediterranean. Data on island occupation were available for a series of 25 years, since first colonization of the archipelago in 1973. Group behavior was studied in relation to the components of dispersal: permanence or abandonment (extinction) on an island previously occupied and permanence or occupation (colonization) of another island. Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) were used to identify the relative contribution of each explanatory variable to the probability of colony abandonment. Gulls showed a low probability (3%) of abandoning one of the isl…