0000000000234401
AUTHOR
Miguel B. Araújo
Modelling landscape constraints on farmland bird species range shifts under climate change
Several studies estimating the effects of global environmental change on biodiversity are focused on climate change. Yet, non-climatic factors such as changes in land cover can also be of paramount importance. This may be particularly important for habitat specialists associated with human-dominated landscapes, where land cover and climate changes may be largely decoupled. Here, we tested this idea by modelling the influence of climate, landscape composition and pattern, on the predicted future (2021–2050) distributions of 21 farmland bird species in the Iberian Peninsula, using boosted regression trees and 10-km resolution presence/absence data. We also evaluated whether habitat specialist…
Planning for the future : identifying conservation priority areas for Iberian birds under climate change
[Context]: Species are expected to shift their distributions in response to global environmental changes and additional protected areas are needed to encompass the corresponding changes in the distributions of their habitats. Conservation policies are likely to become obsolete unless they integrate the potential impacts of climate and land-use change on biodiversity.
Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate
The Iberian lynx ( Lynx pardinus ) has suffered severe population declines in the twentieth century and is now on the brink of extinction 1 . Climate change could further threaten the survival of the species 2 , but its forecast effects are being neglected in recovery plans 3,4 . Quantitative estimates of extinction risk under climate change have so far mostly relied on inferences from correlative projections of species’ habitat shifts 5 . Here we use ecological niche models coupled to metapopulation simulations with source–sink dynamics 6,7 to directly investi- gate the combined effects of climate change, prey availabil- ity and management intervention on the persistence of the Iberian lyn…
Coefficient shifts in geographical ecology: an empirical evaluation of spatial and non-spatial regression
12 páginas, 4 figuras, 3 tablas.
Risk assessment for Iberian birds under global change
Conservation priority areas and programs are often established without consideration of future changes in species distributions. However, global change is expected to threaten the persistence of several species while offering opportunities for range expansion to others. In this study, building on previous work, we develop and implement an approach to classify bird species according to their degree of exposure and vulnerability to future climate and land-use change, including climatically driven changes in vegetation. To examine species exposure to environmental changes, we first fitted environmental envelope models and projected then into the future under scenarios of climate, land use and …