Accounting for soil parameter uncertainty in a physically based and distributed approach for rainfall-triggered landslides

In this study we propose a probabilistic approach for coupled distributed hydrological-hillslope stability models that accounts for soil parameters uncertainty at basin scale. The geotechnical and soil retention curve parameters are treated as random variables across the basin and theoretical probability distributions of the Factor of Safety (FS) are estimated. The derived distributions are used to obtain the spatio-temporal dynamics of probability of failure, in terms of parameters uncertainty, conditioned to soil moisture dynamics. The framework has been implemented in the tRIBS-VEGGIE (Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator-VEGetation Generator fo…