0000000000351395
AUTHOR
Marilena Ciaccio
ANALISI GIS E MODELLI STATISTICI PER LA VALUTAZIONE DELLA SUSCETTIBILITÀ DA FRANA A SCALA DI BACINO: IL CASO STUDIO DEL BACINO DEL TORRENTE MARVELLO
Lo studio condotto nel presente lavoro di tesi ha affrontato il tema della valutazione, a scala di bacino idrografico, della suscettibilità ai fenomeni di tipo colamento, attraverso l’applicazione di modelli statistici e tecniche di analisi spaziale GIS. La fase iniziale della preparazione di un modello di suscettibilità da frana prevede la realizzazione di un inventario degli eventi verificatesi nell’area di studio. Questo passo è di fondamentale importanza, considerando che proprio attraverso l’archivio frane è possibile analizzare ed individuare le condizioni che in passato hanno favorito l’innesco dei movimenti di versante. L’identificazione di queste condizioni, infatti, consente di pr…
Assessment of susceptibility to earth-flow landslide using logistic regression and multivariate adaptive regression splines: A case of the Belice River basin (western Sicily, Italy)
Abstract In this paper, terrain susceptibility to earth-flow occurrence was evaluated by using geographic information systems (GIS) and two statistical methods: Logistic regression (LR) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). LR has been already demonstrated to provide reliable predictions of earth-flow occurrence, whereas MARS, as far as we know, has never been used to generate earth-flow susceptibility models. The experiment was carried out in a basin of western Sicily (Italy), which extends for 51 km 2 and is severely affected by earth-flows. In total, we mapped 1376 earth-flows, covering an area of 4.59 km 2 . To explore the effect of pre-failure topography on earth-flow sp…
Earth-flow susceptibility assessment in the Marvello River basin (Sicily, Italy)
In this study, statistical models of earth-flow susceptibility were prepared using logistic regression. The analyses were carried out in a small (51 km2) basin of western Sicily, where 1,376 earth-flows were identified. To predict the spatial distribution of the mapped landslides, outcropping lithology and seven topographic attributes were exploited as explanatory variables. Before calculating these variables, a reconstruction of the pre-failure topography was performed. To evaluate the predictive skill and the robustness of the models, two groups made of five random subsets of earth-flows and stable cells were prepared. Absences of the first group were selected as individual cells whereas …
Modeling landslide susceptibility by using GIS-analysis and multivariate adaptive regression splines
Landslide susceptibility may be evaluated by defining statistical relationships between the spatial distribution of past slope failures and the variability of landslide triggering factors. In this research, susceptibility to landsliding was assessed by employing multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), a statistical model that has been rarely used to this aim. The experiment was carried out in an area of central Sicily (Italy), which is severely affected by shallow landslides mainly occurring during the wet autumn- winter semester. Bedrock lithology and a set of primary and secondary topographic attributes were exploited as proxies of main landslide driving factors. The robustness o…
Landslide susceptibility zonation by exploiting GIS tools and two statistical methods: binary logistic regression and multivariate adaptive regression splines. A test in western Sicily (Italy)
In the recent years advanced statistical methods and GIS tools have been frequently used to assess landslide susceptibility. The latter is estimated by establishing statistical relationships between landscape characteristics and spatial distribution of past slope-failures. These are mapped mainly by recognizing changes on slope morphology produced by gravity. Despite of this, most of the researches on landslide susceptibility do not consider that slope-failures modify topography and associate high probability of landsliding with topographic characteristics that differ from those that led slope-failures. In this research we analyzed landslide susceptibility in the basin of the Malvello river…