0000000000371412
AUTHOR
ÁRon Székely
Calibration and Validation
The aim of this chapter is to summarise the problems incurred during the phases of calibrating and validating the extortion racket models used by the GLODERS project. The chapter starts with the discussion of the data availability and summarises shortly the contents of Sect. 4.3. It continues with a discussion of what parameterisation, calibration, sensitivity analysis and validation have to do with each other and ends up with a discussion of the validity of the GLODERS models.
An Agent-Based Model of Extortion Racketeering
Mafias can be considered as criminal organisations that are in the business of producing, promoting, and selling protection. Here, we describe the Palermo Scenario, an agent-based model of protection rackets aimed to deepen our understanding of protection rackets, and help policymakers to evaluate methods for destabilising them. Additionally, since the system is explicitly specified, we can use it to investigate the entire causal pathway from cause to effect: not only from actions to Mafia destabilisation, but also the intermediate actions along the path and actors' internal mental representations among the population.