0000000000465265
AUTHOR
Brian Barker
The ARYA crop yield forecasting algorithm: Application to the main wheat exporting countries
Abstract Wheat is the most important commodity traded in the international food market. Thus, accurate and timely information on wheat production can help mitigate food price fluctuations. Within the existing operational regional and global scale agricultural monitoring systems that provide information on global crop yield and area forecasts, there are still fundamental gaps: #1. Lack of quantitative Earth Observation (EO) derived crop information, #2. Lack of global but detailed (national or subnational level) and timely crop production forecasts and #3. Lack of information on forecast uncertainties. In this study we present the Agriculture Remotely-sensed Yield Algorithm (ARYA) an EO-base…
Forecasting Wheat Yield Using Remote Sensing: The ARYA Forecasting System
In this study we present a model to forecast wheat yield based on the evolution of the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) and the Growing Degree Days (GDD), presented in Franch et al. (2015), but adapted to Franch et al. (2019) model. Additionally, we explore how the Land Surface Temperature (LST) can be included into the model and if this parameter adds any value to the model when combined with the optical information. This study is applied to MODIS data at 1km resolution to monitor the national and state level yield of winter wheat in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2019.