0000000000522174
AUTHOR
Serge Janicot
showing 17 related works from this author
Recent changes in air temperature, heat waves occurrences, and atmospheric circulation in Northern Africa
2013
This study documents the time evolution of air temperature and heat waves occurrences over Northern Africa for the period 1979-2011. A significant warming (1°-3°C), appearing by the mid-1960s over Sahara and Sahel, is associated with higher/lesser frequency of warm/cold temperatures, as with longer duration and higher occurrences of heat waves. Heat waves episodes of at least 4 day duration have been examined after removing the long-term evolution. These episodes are associated with specific anomalies: (i) in spring, positive low-level temperature anomalies over the Sahel and Sahara; low and midlevel cyclonic rotation over Morocco associated with a Rossby wave pattern, lessening the Harmatt…
Impacts of the Mediterranean basins on the West African monsoon: observed connection patterns (1979
2009
International audience
Downscaling West African climate : uncertainties, sensitivity to the model physics and regional variability
2013
We present here a set of regional climate simulations, complementary to the CORDEX-Africa modeling exercice, performed over West Africa during the 1989-2010 period using the non-hydrostatic model WRF. Lateral and SST forcings are provided by ERA-Interim reanalyses. The regional domain [45W 45E 10S 30N] encompasses West Africa and the nearby Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The grid resolution is moderate (80km, with 28 levels on the vertical) in order to reduce computational costs and multiply sensitivity experiments. A first set of fifteen 20-year long simulations addresses the influence of the model physics (convective, radiative and land surface schemes). A second set of simulations co…
Evolution saisonnière des corrélations entre précipitations en Afrique guinéenne et températures de surface de la mer (1945–1994)
1997
Resume Les precipitations en Afrique de l'Ouest au sud de 10∘ N ont fortement baisse entre les decennies 1950 et 1980, pour tous les mois, excepte juillet et aout. Une analyse des correlations entre temperatures de surface de mer et precipitations sur la periode 1945–1994 montre que: 1) la grande saison seche (novembre a avril) ainsi que la premiere saison des pluies (mai-juin) sont associees a une structure globale de correlations, negatives/positives dans l'hemisphere Sud/Nord ; 2) la petite saison seche (juillet-aout) est associee a des correlations positives dans l'Atlantique Sud et equatorial ; 3) la deuxieme saison des pluies (septembre–octobre) est associee a des correlations positiv…
Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) : an integrated project for understanding of the West African climate system and its human dimension
2011
International audience; The intraseasonal time scale is critical in West Africa where resources are highly rainfall dependent. Three main modes of variability have been identified, two with a mean periodicity of 15 days and one with a mean periodicity around 40 days. These modes have a regional scale and can strongly influence precipitation and convective activity. They are mainly controlled by atmospheric dynamics and land-surface interactions. They can also modulate the very specific phase of the African summer monsoon onset. A better knowledge of the mechanisms controlling this scale is necessary to improve its predictability.
Comparison of rainfall structures between NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and observed data over tropical Africa
2000
A comparison is made between modelled (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) and observed (CRC and CRU dataset) annual and monthly precipitation over tropical Africa during the period 1958–1997. The split moving-windows dissimilarity analysis (SMWDA) is used to locate abrupt changes in rainfall time series. In the NCEP reanalysis data, we identify a main abrupt shift, which occurs in 1967 and concerns more than 50% of grid points. In the observation, this shift is only found over parts of tropical North Africa. Three other NCEP abrupt shifts (1975, 1983 and 1987) in the reanalysis shown by the SMWDA, each concerning about 20% of tropical Africa, are not identified in the observation. One hypothesis concern…
Sea Surface Temperature Fields Associated with West African Rainfall Anomaly Types
1996
Abstract Four West African rainfall anomaly types are defined in relation to the northern summer rainfall departure signs in the Sahel and in the Guinean region in order to investigate the statistical links between interannual variability of West African rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) through the period 1950–90. Composite analysis depicts the setup of four different mean SST anomaly fields. Drought over all of West Africa is associated with the growth of positive SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific and in the Indian Ocean, and negative SST anomalies in the northern Atlantic and in the Gulf of Guinea. In contrast, drought limited to the Sahel corresponds mostly to a northward ex…
Summer Sahel-ENSO teleconnection and decadal time scale SST variations
2001
The correlation between Sahel rainfall and El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the northern summer has been varying for the last fifty years. We propose that the existence of periods of weak or strong relationship could result from an interaction with the global decadal scale sea surface temperature (SST) background. The main modes of SST variability have been extracted through a principal component analysis with Varimax rotation. The correlations between a July-September Sahel rainfall index and these SST modes have been computed on a 20-year running window between 1945 and 1993. The correlations with the interannual ENSO-SST mode are negative, not significant in the 1960s during the tr…
VERTICAL MOTION CHANGES RELATED TO NORTH-EAST BRAZIL RAINFALL VARIABILITY: A GCM SIMULATION
1996
The atmospheric structure over north-east Brazil during anomalous rainfall years is studied in the 11 levels of the outputs of the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique atmospheric general circulation model (LMD AGCM). Seven 19-year simulations were performed using observed sea-surface temperature (SST) corresponding to the period 1970– 1988. The ensemble mean is calculated for each month of the period, leading to an ensemble-averaged simulation. The simulated March-April rainfall is in good agreement with observations. Correlations of simulated rainfall and three SST indices relative to the equatorial Pacific and northern and southern parts of the Atlantic Ocean exhibit stronger relationsh…
Heat wave occurrences over Senegal during spring: regionalization and synoptic patterns.
2020
18 pages; International audience; Based on 12 Senegalese stations of the Global Summary of the Day (GSOD) database (1979–2014), heat waves (HW) are defined for each station in spring (March–April–May, the hottest season in Senegal) as the daily maximum temperature (Tx), minimum temperature (Tn), or average apparent temperature of the day (AT), exceeding the corresponding 95% mobile percentile for at least three consecutive days. A hierarchical cluster analysis used to regionalize HW in these 12 stations is applied to simultaneous occurrences of daily temperature peaks over their 95% mobile percentiles. Three homogeneous zones of four stations each are identified (Zone 1, Zone 2 and Zone 3),…
Trends of mean temperatures and warm extremes in northern tropical Africa (1961-2014) from observed and PPCA-reconstructed time series
2016
Trends in daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures and indices of warm extremes are studied in tropical North Africa, west of the eastern African highlands, from 1961 to 2014. The analysis is based on the concatenation and cross-checking of two observed databases. Due to the large number of missing entries (~25%), a statistical infilling using probabilistic principal component analysis was applied. Averaged over 90 stations, the linear trends of annual mean TX and TN equal respectively +0.021 °C/yr and +0.028 °C/yr. The frequency of very hot days (TX > 35°C) and tropical nights (TN > 20°C), as well as the frequency of daily TX and TN above the 90th percentile (p90) (“warm days” and …
Durée et fréquence des vagues de chaleur en Afrique tropicale septentrionale selon 5 indices de chaleur
2019
Thermal extremes generate health risks that are increasingly taken into account, including in tropical Africa. This work compares the duration and the frequency of spring heat waves (HWs) in West Africa according to 5 indices: Warm Spell (WS), Heat Index (HI) with and without the relative humidity, Apparent Temperature (AT), and Excess Heat Factor (EHF). The daily relative humidity and temperature data (minimum, maximum, dew point are provided by the GSOD database for the period 1973-2014 and cover 145 stations spread over a large African area (3-24°N; 24°W-36°E). The results show that the duration of the HWs is short on the coast (3 days) and they last longer inland the continent and in th…
Durée et fréquence des vagues de chaleur en Afrique tropicale septentrionale selon 5 indices de chaleur.
2019
Thermal extremes generate health risks that are increasingly taken into account, including in tropical Africa. This work compares the duration and the frequency of spring heat waves (HWs) in West Africa according to 5 indices: Warm Spell (WS), Heat Index (HI) with and without the relative humidity, Apparent Temperature (AT), and Excess Heat Factor (EHF). The daily relative humidity and temperature data (minimum, maximum, dew point are provided by the GSOD database for the period 1973-2014 and cover 145 stations spread over a large African area (3-24°N; 24°W-36°E). The results show that the duration of the HWs is short on the coast (3 days) and they last longer inland the continent and in th…
Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic vs. ENSO
2001
A 47-year record (1951-1997) of gridded data covering Africa south of the Sahara was used to document the spatial and seasonal patterns of the correlation between precipitation and sea-surface temperatures (SST) in key tropical areas, as depicted by the NIN O3, South Atlantic and North Atlantic indices. El Nino -Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is confirmed as playing a dominant part in northeastern, eastern and southern Africa. However, its impact is also found over the Sahel during the northern summer, and other parts of the Gulf of Guinea region outside this season, a hitherto poorly documented feature. Over these two areas, ENSO and Atlantic SST (predominantly South Atlantic) contribute to d…
Sahel droughts and Enso dynamics
1996
Correlations between summer Sahel rainfall and Southern Oscillation Index has increased during the last thirty years. At high frequency time scale (periods lower than 8 years), an intertropical Atlantic zonal divergent circulation anomaly is forced by the difference of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies between the eastern equatorial parts of Pacific and Atlantic. This zonal connection worked well during most of the E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events occurring after 1970; positive/negative SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific/Atlantic led to rainfall deficits over the whole West Africa. At low frequency time scale (periods greater than 8 years), positive SST anomalies in the In…
Les vagues de chaleur au Sahel : caractérisation, mécanismes, prévisibilité.
2016
The mechanisms controlling Sahelian heat wave (HW) variability are examined on the period 1979-2014 using the GSOD observational database and ERA-Interim reanalyses. HW events are analyzed through all terms of the atmospheric energy balance, showing a predominant role of incoming shortwave radiation on daily maximum temperature (Tx) and atmospheric water vapor on minimum temperature (Tn). The low-frequency warming trend, not explained by the previous terms, is thought to relate to the increase of greenhouse gases concentrations, due to anthropogenic emissions. The predictability of Sahelian HW events is assessed for lead times reaching up to 15 days. The model's skill, biases and uncertaint…
Interannual and decadal SST-forced responses of the West African monsoon
2010
International audience; We review the studies carried out during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)-EU on the changes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST)-West African monsoon (WAM) covariability at multidecadal timescales, together with the influence of global warming (GW). The results obtained in the AMMA-EU suggest the importance of the background state, modulated by natural and anthropogenic variability, in the appearance of different interannual modes. The lack of reliability of current coupled models in giving a realistic assessment for WAM in the future is also stated.