0000000000573476
AUTHOR
A. Andrade
SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study
Abstract Background Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18–49, 50–69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results NNVs were more favourable in su…
Abrupt vegetation changes in the Segura Mountains of southern Spain throughout the Holocene
Summary 1 The fossil pollen record of Canada de la Cruz in the Segura mountains of southern Spain yields insights into high-elevation vegetational dynamics over the last c. 8320 years. Phases of xerophytic grassland alternate with high-mountain open pine forests and expansion of deciduous forests and Mediterranean scrub at lower altitudes. 2 Longer-term stable vegetation patterns are interrupted by multidecadal to century-scale shifts at about 7770, 3370, 2630, 1525 and 790 years BP. 3 Some of the vegetation types have no modern analogues and represent high-altitude remnants of widespread last-glacial xerophytic communities. Other species patterns, characteristic of current scrub associatio…