0000000000590837
AUTHOR
Ziv Shkedy
Real-time parameter estimation of Zika outbreaks using model averaging
SUMMARYEarly prediction of the final size of any epidemic and in particular for Zika disease outbreaks can be useful for health authorities in order to plan the response to the outbreak. The Richards model is often been used to estimate epidemiological parameters for arboviral diseases based on the reported cumulative cases in single- and multi-wave outbreaks. However, other non-linear models can also fit the data as well. Typically, one follows the so called post selection estimation procedure, i.e., selects the best fitting model out of the set of candidate models and ignores the model uncertainty in both estimation and inference since these procedures are based on a single model. In this…
Disease severity in patients with visceral leishmaniasis is not altered by co-infection with intestinal parasites
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease that affects the poorest communities and can cause substantial morbidity and mortality. Visceral leishmaniasis is characterized by the presence of Leishmania parasites in the spleen, liver and bone marrow, hepatosplenomegaly, pancytopenia, prolonged fever, systemic inflammation and low body mass index (BMI). The factors impacting on the severity of VL are poorly characterized. Here we performed a cross-sectional study to assess whether co-infection of VL patients with intestinal parasites influences disease severity, assessed with clinical and haematological data, inflammation, cytokine profiles and BMI. Data from VL patients was s…