0000000000615250
AUTHOR
Salvatore Lobello
A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions.
Abstract Background Although an increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence from Northern to Southern Italy has been reported, the burden of asymptomatic individuals in different Italian regions is currently unknown. Methods A probabilistic approach, including a Markov chain for liver disease progression, was applied to estimate current HCV viraemic burden. The model defined prevalence by geographic area using an estimated annual historical HCV incidence by age, treatment rate, and migration rate from the Italian National database. Viraemic infection by age group was estimated for each region by main HCV transmission routes of individuals for stage F0–F3 (i.e. patients without liver cirr…
Additional file 1 of A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions
Additional file 1: Table S1. Estimates of % of viraemic HCV individuals in different Italian regions according to fibrosis stage and high-risk groups.
Estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HCV infected individuals in Italy: A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression
Abstract Background The universal treatment of diagnosed patients with chronic HCV infection has been widely conducted in Italy since 2017. However, the pool of individuals diagnosed but yet to be treated in Italy has been estimated to end around 2025, leaving a significant proportion of infected individuals undiagnosed/without care. Estimates of this population are currently unknown. Methods A probabilistic modelling approach was applied to estimate annual historical HCV incident cases by their age-group (0–100 years) distribution from available literature and Italian National database (1952 to October 2019). Viraemic infection rates were modelled on the main infection routes in Italy: peo…