0000000000621275
AUTHOR
Jean-sauveur Ay
Disease dispersion as a spatial interaction: The case of Flavescence Dorée
International audience; Flavescence dorée is a serious and incurable vine disease transmitted by an insect vector. Focusing on its spatial diffusion and on its control with pesticides, this paper investigates the private strategies of wine producers and their socially optimal counterparts. The socially optimal regulation has to address two externalities regarding private treatment decisions: (a) the insufficient consideration of collective benefits from controlling the vector populations; (b) the failure to take into account environmental damage related to pesticide application. The probability of infection is estimated on French data from a spatial econometric specification. Three alternat…
Nonlinear impact estimation in spatial autoregressive models
International audience; This paper extends the literature on the calculation and interpretation of impacts for spatial autoregressive models. Using a Bayesian framework, we show how the individual direct and indirect impacts associated with an exogenous variable introduced in a nonlinear way in such models can be computed, theoretically and empirically. Rather than averaging the individual impacts, we suggest to graphically analyze them along with their confidence intervals calculated from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We also explicitly derive the form of the gap between individual impacts in the spatial autoregressive model and the corresponding model without a spatial lag and show, in…