Risk of pancreatic malignancy and mortality in branch-duct IPMNs undergoing surveillance: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Background Safety of non-operative management for low-risk branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) is debated. Aim To perform a systematic review/meta-analysis to determine their risk of developing pancreatic malignancy and of pancreatic malignancy-related deaths. Methods A MEDLINE search was performed and methodology was based on PRISMA statement. Incidence rates of overall pancreatic malignancy, malignant BD-IPMN, IPMN-distinct PDAC, and of pancreatic malignancy-related death rates were calculated by dividing the total number of events by the total number of person-years (pyrs) of follow-up. Heterogeneity was determined by I2 statistic. Results 20 studies …