Author: Valtteri Myllymäki

0000000000869913

AUTHOR

Valtteri Myllymäki

Pricing of electricity futures based on locational price differences : empirical evidence from Finland

Tietyn maantieteellisen alueen kilpailullisilla sähkömarkkinoilla on yleensä viitespot-hinta, joka kuvastaa yleistä hintatasoa tukkumarkkinalla, ja jota käytetään johdannaisten viitehintana. Paikallisten markkinoiden hinnat saattavat kuitenkin poiketa tästä viitehinnasta siirtoyhteyksien rajallisuuden takia. Pohjoismaisilla sähkömarkkinoilla ns. systeemi- ja tarjousalueen aluehinnan väliseltä basis-riskiltä suojaudutaan ns. aluehintaero-johdannaisilla (eng. Electricity Price Area Differential, EPAD). Tutkin tässä pro gradu- työssä Suomen tarjousalueen EPAD-tuotteiden ja vastaavan aluehintaeron yhteyttä. Koska sähkö ei ole varastoitavissa, yleisen näkemyksen mukaan sopiva sähköfutuurien hinn…

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Pricing of electricity futures based on locational price differences : The case of Finland

We find that the pricing of Finnish electricity market futures has been inefficient during the latest 10 years, when the trading volumes of Electricity Price Area Differentials (EPADs) have more than doubled. Even though the calculated futures premium on EPADs is related to some risk measures and the variables capturing the demand and supply conditions in the spot electricity markets, there has been a significant positive excess futures premium in the Finnish market, and financial market participants should have been able to utilize this also in economic terms. This finding is new and relevant for the participants of the Nordic electricity markets also in the future, because both the specul…

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