Development of a Risk Score for Atrial Fibrillation in the Community; The Framingham Heart Study

Atrial fibrillation contributes to substantial increases in morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop a risk score to predict individuals' absolute risk of developing the condition, and to provide a framework for researchers to assess new risk markers.We assessed 4764 participants in the Framingham Heart Study from 8044 examinations (55% women, 45-95 years of age) undertaken between June, 1968, and September, 1987. Thereafter, participants were monitored for the first event of atrial fibrillation for a maximum of 10 years. Multivariable Cox regression identified clinical risk factors associated with development of atrial fibrillation in 10 years. Secondary analyses incorporated routine e…