Prediction of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus based on a twenty-year follow-up of the Ventimiglia heart study.

A novel algorithm to predict incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (iT2DM) is presented considering data from a 20-year prospective study in a Southern Italy population. Eight hundred and fifty-eight out of 1,351 subjects (24-85 years range of age) were selected. Incident type 2 diabetes was diagnosed in 103 patients in a 20-year follow-up. The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and the Framingham Offspring Study simple clinical model (FOS) have been used as reference algorithms. Two custom algorithms have been created using Cox parametric hazard models followed by PROBIT analyses: the first one (VHSRISK) includes all the study subjects and the second one (VHS95RISK) evaluates separately su…