Clinical Severity in Different Waves of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Sicily: A Model of Smith’s “Law of Declining Virulence” from Real-World Data

Background: The COVID-19 epidemic had a rapid spread worldwide with a continuous and fast mutation of the virus, resulting in the emergence of several variants of concern (VOC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the severity of each VOC among SARS-CoV-2 infected subjects by investigating deaths, ICU admissions, intubations, and severe critical symptoms. Methods: An ecological observational study was performed to evaluate mortality rates and clinical characteristics of 321,490 unvaccinated Sicilian SARS-CoV-2 cases observed from 2 March 2020 to 27 March 2022. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by multivariate logistic regression analysis evaluating factors…