Exploring the predictability of the‘Short Rains’ at the coast of East Africa

2004

The boreal autumn ‘Short Rains’ at the coast of East Africa are deficient when there is weak development of a zonal circulation cell along the Indian Ocean equator, an anomalously low sea-surface temperature in the western portion of the basin, and in the high phase of the southern oscillation. Such large-scale circulation departures and their precursors are described by compact indices. September values of these indices for the period 1958–96 are used to explore the predictability of an index (RON) of October–November rainfall at the coast of East Africa. Regressions with cross-validation over the entire 1958–96 period are evaluated for the early (1958–77) and late (1978–96) halves of the …