DETECTING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS BY DESIGNED BREAK-INDICATOR SATURATION

2016

We present a methodology for detecting breaks at any point in time-series regression models using an indicator saturation approach, applied here to modelling climate change. Building on recent developments in econometric model selection for more variables than observations, we saturate a regression model with a full set of designed break functions. By selecting over these break functions using an extended general-to-specific algorithm, we obtain unbiased estimates of the break date and magnitude. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the approximate properties of the approach. We assess the methodology by detecting volcanic eruptions in a time series of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature spanni…

Corrigendum: A new archive of large volcanic events over the past millennium derived from reconstructed summer temperatures (2017 Environ. Res. Lett.…

2017