Recruitment signals in juvenile cod surveys depend on thermal growth conditions

Coastal seine surveys contain some of the only direct measures of age-0 abundance for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), yet their utility in forecasting future year-class strength has not been evaluated among regions. We analyzed coastal time series from the Gulf of Alaska, Newfoundland, and Norway to test the hypothesis that recruitment signals are stronger when assessed under thermal conditions that provide high juvenile growth potential. Weaker recruitment signals were associated with low growth potential from cold winters (Newfoundland) and recent warmer summers (Norway). We conclude that temperature-dependent growth strongly influences the utility of c…