0000000001126052
AUTHOR
R. Blanco-colino
SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study
Abstract Background Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18–49, 50–69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results NNVs were more favourable in su…
Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis.
Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (pro…
Early outcomes and complications following cardiac surgery in patients testing positive for coronavirus disease 2019: An international cohort study
The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndromecoronavirus-2, the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in December 2019 represented a global emergency accounting for more than 2.5 million deaths worldwide.1 It has had an unprecedented influence on cardiac surgery internationally, resulting in cautious delivery of surgery and restructuring of services.2 Understanding the influence of COVID-19 on patients after cardiac surgery is based on assumptions from other surgical specialties and single-center studies. The COVIDSurg Collaborative conducted a multicenter cohort study, including 1128 patients, across 235 hospitals, from 24 countries demonstrating perioperative COVID-19 infection…
Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score
The British journal of surgery 108(11), 1274-1292 (2021). doi:10.1093/bjs/znab183