Expected future changes in the African monsoon between 2030 and 2070 using some CMIP3 and CMIP5 models under a medium-low RCP scenario

[1] The accuracy of African Monsoon (AM) simulations together with expected future changes are presented using eight available CMIP5/AR5 AOGCMs under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and eight CMIP3/AR4 AOGCMs under the A1b scenario, with a multimodel approach and the “one model one vote” concept. The results refer to the ‘present’ period (1960–1999) and to a ‘future horizon’ (2031–2070), and are discussed in terms of monsoon dynamics and climate change. Overall the new simulations seem more realistic. They exhibit more accurate rainfall patterns, although some biases reported in CMIP3 models remain. The future changes show an inverse tendency regarding rainfall amounts with less (more) rainfal…

Global equatorial variability of 850 and 200 hPa zonal winds from rawinsondes between 1963 and 1989

The longitude-height-time variability of 3-month averaged zonal wind anomalies at 850 and 200 hPa over the equatorial area (5{degrees}N-5{degrees}S) is analyzed using a three-dimensional dataset constructed from rawinsonde data (1963-1989). The first mode, closely related to the Southern Oscillation Index, suggests a strong vertical coupling associated with a horizontal out-of-phase pattern between the central/western Pacific and the remainder of the equatorial belt. The vertical coupling appears to be phase-locked to the annual cycle with strongest intensities found over South America and near the maritime continent early in the calendar year and over the Pacific basin and Africa during th…

Sudan-Sahel rainfall onset: Definition of an objective index, types of years, and experimental hindcasts

Using rainfall estimates from the 5-day version of CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project data along with multiscale spatial key descriptors of atmospheric dynamics from National Center for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy reanalysis 2 (NCEP/DOE), we first define a West African monsoon onset index to determine its successive dates of occurrence over the period 1979-2004 (28-29 June in mean with a standard deviation of 8.5 days). Then we focus on the three main types of time evolutions of that index at the moment of the monsoon onset in terms of precipitation, pressure, temperature, and winds at different levels to detect the mos…

"Abundance of main vectors of malaria and climatic factors: the case of Ndiop and Dielmo villages (Sine Saloum, Senegal)"

International audience

Changes in the African monsoon region at medium-term time horizon using 12 AR4 coupled models under the A1b emissions scenario.

This study documents simulated precipitation and circulation changes through the 20C3M and A1b scenarios. It portrays a robust pattern, associating rainfall deficits in subtropical regions with rainfall excesses over West Africa, except in Northern Senegal and Mauritania, with a significant enhancement of both the April–June rainy season in 10/12 models and of the July–September rainy season in 8/12 models. Eastward to 5°W a northward shift in the latitude of the moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa is evident in 10/11 models (+0.58° in mean) and a southward shift in 6/11 models in the western region (−0.24°) is observed. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Recent changes in air temperature, heat waves occurrences, and atmospheric circulation in Northern Africa

This study documents the time evolution of air temperature and heat waves occurrences over Northern Africa for the period 1979-2011. A significant warming (1°-3°C), appearing by the mid-1960s over Sahara and Sahel, is associated with higher/lesser frequency of warm/cold temperatures, as with longer duration and higher occurrences of heat waves. Heat waves episodes of at least 4 day duration have been examined after removing the long-term evolution. These episodes are associated with specific anomalies: (i) in spring, positive low-level temperature anomalies over the Sahel and Sahara; low and midlevel cyclonic rotation over Morocco associated with a Rossby wave pattern, lessening the Harmatt…

Definition and predictability of an OLR based West African monsoon onset

The monsoon onset is documented in terms of latitudinal shift of deep convection areas within the ITCZ using an interpolated version of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) at a 5-day time-step over West Africa for the period 1979–2004. Signals in moist convection derived from OLR values lower than 180 W/m2 allow better determination of onset dates (ODs) than the use of other thresholds or of the raw values of OLR. Such ODs are defined without any time filtering or spatial averaging along the meridional plane. They are also significantly correlated with ODs based on other datasets such as the CMAP and Global Precipitation Climatology P…

Impact des facteurs climatiques sur la présence et l'abondance saisonnière des principaux vecteurs du paludisme en Afrique soudano-sahélienne

International audience

How using large scale rainfall datasets over West Africa ?

Uses and limits of thermal indices: the case of Sahel

International audience; Our main goal here is to analyse extreme heat waves (HWs) in the Sahel (13°N-18°N; 16°W-30°E), using different thermal indices. In the ACASIS project funded bythe French “Agence Nationale de la Recherche”, HWs analyses are characterized forthe first time during the hottest season in the Sahel, using the Global Summary of theDay (GSOD) synoptic observations during April-May-June 1973-2013. Such extremehigh temperatures are usually defined by 3 criteria: 1/ Their low probability ofoccurrence: less than the 10% of the days. The use of absolute thresholds,associated with heat budget and physiological impacts, could be an alternative(Seneviratne et al., 2012). 2/ Their in…

Cambios en la frecuencia de los Regímenes de Tiempo sobre la región Euro-Atlántica y Mediterránea y su relación con las temperaturas anómalas sobre el Mar Mediterráneo

An exercise has been carried out to assess to what extent the Euro-Atlantic Weather Regimes (WR), described from the ERA-interim Reanalysis in the summer season, projects onto a pool of AGCMAMIP simulations in which sea surface temperatures (SST) are prescribed from observations. Although the model simulations present some biases in the spatial structure and seasonality of WRs, exhibiting also less variability, they are able to capture main WR over the region in summer season: +Middle East –Middle East, +NAO, -NAO. WR paradigm is used to quantify changes in the atmosphere under warmer/colder than normal conditions over the Mediterranean Sea. To address this problem, firstly, changes in the …

Variabilité basse-fréquence des précipitations au Sahel et des températures de surface de l'océan Atlantique au cours du dernier siècle.

6 pages; International audience; Cette étude examine les téléconnexions entre les températures de surface de la mer (TSM) de l'océan Atlantique et la distribution zonale des précipitations au Sahel au cours du dernier siècle. Depuis la fin des années 60, les précipitations d'Afrique de l'Ouest présentent une tendance négative sur l'ensemble de la bande sahélienne. Pourtant, trois types de variabilité basse-fréquence des précipitations sahélienne sont observés : la côte atlantique (Dakar), le Sahel central (Nioro du Sahel et Mopti) et le Sahel oriental (Niamey, Maradi, Maïné-Soroa). Au cours du XXème siècle, les précipitations sont rarement reliées simultanément avec les TSM de l'Atlantique …

Recent changes in precipitation, ITCZ convection and northern tropical circulation over North Africa (1979-2007)

This article focuses on some recent changes observed in the Tropics with special emphasis on the African monsoon region using high-resolution gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (period 1979–2002), outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and atmospheric reanalyses from the Climate Prediction Center (NCEP-DOE2, period 1979–2007). The results show a rainfall increase in North Africa since the mid-90s with significant northward migrations of rainfall amounts, i.e. + 1.5° for the 400 mm July to September isohyets, whereas deep convection has significantly increased and shifted northward. The subsidence b…

Etude d'impact de la variabilité saisonnière des paramètres environnementaux sur les vecteurs du paludisme dans les villages de Ndiop et Dielmo (Sénégal)

Action Thématique Interdépartementale de l'IRD "Evolution Climatique et Santé"; Séminaire AMMA, Montpellier

Les changements futurs de la mousson africaine.

7 pages; International audience; Nous analysons l’effet du changement climatique sur la mousson d’Afrique de l’ouest par l’utilisation de huitmodèles CMIP5 sous scénario RCP4.5, la réalisation d’un multi-modèle et l’approche « one model, one vote ». Les résultatsmontrent l’apparition d’un contraste pluviométrique zonal entre le centre et l’ouest du Sahel. Une mousson plus intensepermettrait une hausse de la convergence d’humidité et des précipitations au centre du Sahel. Un renforcement du jet d’estafricain et de la subsidence sur l’ouest du Sahel y permettrait en revanche une baisse de la pluviométrie.

Changements d'échelle et sorties climatiques régionalisées

Les modèles numériques de circulation générale produisent des champs climatiques sur un maillage trop grossier. Certains paramètres varient beaucoup localement en fonction de leur environnement (relief, végétation...). C'est le cas des précipitations, lorsqu'elles sont essentiellement convectives comme en Afrique. Les méthodes et outils permettant un dialogue entre ces deux échelles vont des modèles emboîtés aux modèles statistiques, en passant par des approches mixtes. Ces techniques en développement deviennent nécessaires si l'on veut mener correctement les études d'impact liées à la variabilité climatique à court ou moyen terme, particulièrement pour ce qui concerne l'extension des malad…

Impacts of the Mediterranean basins on the West African monsoon: observed connection patterns (1979

International audience

Variations de la phénologie végétale et relations avec la variabilité pluviométrique et la croissance démographique dans le nord du Cameroun.

International audience; La variabilité des précipitations dans le Nord du Cameroun (entre 6°N-13°N et 12°E-16°E), au cours de la période 1982-2002 et leur relation avec l'évolution de la phénologie végétale et la croissance démographique est étudiée. Dans un premier temps, l'on présente le cycle annuel et la variabilité interannuelle des pluies à partir des données de 31 stations inégalement réparties sur la région. L'évolution du couvert végétal et la densité de la population sont ensuite présentées à partir de synthèses bimensuelles d'indice de végétation normalisée (NDVI) à 8km de résolution d'une part, et de données de densité de population de 79 unités administratives d'autre part. Afi…

Assessment of the ENSEMBLES stream 2 and comparison with PRESAO forecasts

Retrospective forecasts of Sahelian summer rainfall by the use of a MOS approach and DEMETER data

Régionaliser le climat pour en évaluer les impacts : l'apport des modèles numériques

National audience; La simulation de l'évolution future du climat repose sur l'utilisation de modèles numériques complexes. Ces modèles doivent prendre en compte les diverses composantes du système climatique (atmosphère, biosphère, cryosphère et lithosphère) et leurs temps de réponse respectifs pour simuler les réactions de ce système à différents scénarios de perturbations d'origine naturelle (activités solaire et volcanique...) ou humaine (émissions de gaz à effet de serre et d'aérosols). Afin d'étudier l'impact du climat sur une région donnée, il faut disposer d'une résolution spatiale suffisamment fine (quelques kilomètres) dont ne disposent pas les modèles de circulation générale plané…

Downscaling West African climate : uncertainties, sensitivity to the model physics and regional variability

We present here a set of regional climate simulations, complementary to the CORDEX-Africa modeling exercice, performed over West Africa during the 1989-2010 period using the non-hydrostatic model WRF. Lateral and SST forcings are provided by ERA-Interim reanalyses. The regional domain [45W 45E 10S 30N] encompasses West Africa and the nearby Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The grid resolution is moderate (80km, with 28 levels on the vertical) in order to reduce computational costs and multiply sensitivity experiments. A first set of fifteen 20-year long simulations addresses the influence of the model physics (convective, radiative and land surface schemes). A second set of simulations co…

Climate Adjustments over Africa Accompanying the Indian Monsoon Onset

Abstract Rainfall and circulation changes accompanying the Indian monsoon onset are examined, focusing on the African continent and neighboring areas. The Indian Meteorological Department official monsoon onset dates over Kerala (MOK; on average on 1 June) are used. Composites are formed at a pentad (5 days) time scale to compare pre- and postonset conditions. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data for 1979–2007 indicate that a substantial rainfall decrease over several parts of Africa is associated with MOK. Significant rainfall anomalies, after removal of the mean seasonal cycle, are found in eastern Africa and the nearby western Indian Ocean. Indian …

Evolution saisonnière des corrélations entre précipitations en Afrique guinéenne et températures de surface de la mer (1945–1994)

Resume Les precipitations en Afrique de l'Ouest au sud de 10∘ N ont fortement baisse entre les decennies 1950 et 1980, pour tous les mois, excepte juillet et aout. Une analyse des correlations entre temperatures de surface de mer et precipitations sur la periode 1945–1994 montre que: 1) la grande saison seche (novembre a avril) ainsi que la premiere saison des pluies (mai-juin) sont associees a une structure globale de correlations, negatives/positives dans l'hemisphere Sud/Nord ; 2) la petite saison seche (juillet-aout) est associee a des correlations positives dans l'Atlantique Sud et equatorial ; 3) la deuxieme saison des pluies (septembre–octobre) est associee a des correlations positiv…

Quasi-decadal signals of Sahel rainfall and West African monsoon since the mid-twentieth century

[1] Sahel rainfall shows pronounced decadal variability and a negative trend between wet conditions in the 1950s–1960s and dry ones in the 1970s–1980s. Using continuous wavelet transform, the quasi-decadal variability (QDV) of rainfall reveals zonal contrasts. The highest QDV is identified in the 1950s–1960s over western Sahel and in the 1970s–1980s over eastern Sahel. The quasi-decadal atmospheric anomalies have been reconstructed using Fourier transform for the 1950s–1960s and the 1970s–1980s, respectively, and assessed by the composite analysis of the QDV phases for the periods before and after 1968. Over western Sahel, the rainfall QDV in the 1950s–1960s is related to the North Atlantic…

Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) : an integrated project for understanding of the West African climate system and its human dimension

International audience; The intraseasonal time scale is critical in West Africa where resources are highly rainfall dependent. Three main modes of variability have been identified, two with a mean periodicity of 15 days and one with a mean periodicity around 40 days. These modes have a regional scale and can strongly influence precipitation and convective activity. They are mainly controlled by atmospheric dynamics and land-surface interactions. They can also modulate the very specific phase of the African summer monsoon onset. A better knowledge of the mechanisms controlling this scale is necessary to improve its predictability.

Analysis of the relationships between climate/aerosols and meningitis epidemics in Western Africa

Performance of DEMETER calibration for rainfall forecasting purposes: Application to the July–August Sahelian rainfall

International audience; This work assesses and compares the skill of direct and model-output-statistics (MOS) calibrated hindcasts of the July–August rainfall amounts for the dry period 1980–2000 over the Sahel issued from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) experiment, with the aim to highlight among the simulated parameters, i.e., those potentially relevant for rainfall forecasts purposes. Three approaches were used: the DEMETER (1) direct rainfall, (2) MOS-calibrated rainfall, and (3) MOS-calibrated atmospheric dynamics and energy. Canonical correlation analyses (CCA) were employed in the two latter approaches to calib…

Mid-century effects of Climate Change on African monsoon dynamics using the A1B emission scenario

Future climate changes in African regions are model-dependent and there is no consensus regarding Sahelian rainfall by the end of this century. Using 12 atmosphere-ocean global climate models of the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) we propose a multi-model (MM) analysis contrasting the 1960–1999 period (20c3m integration) and the 2031–2070 period (A1B emission scenario). The analyses are based on MM response but also on the ‘one model-one vote’ concept to give the same weight to each model. The results show robust signals in the rainfall response, i.e., increasing (decreasing) amounts in central (western) Sahel associated with specific changes in atmospheric dynamics. The…

An improvement of June-September rainfall forecasting in the Sahel based upon region April-May moist static energy content (1968-1997)

This study provides statistical evidence that June–September Sahelian rainfall hindcasts currently based on oceanic thermal predictors apprehend more the negative trend than the interannual rainfall variations. Four physically meaningful predictors of June–September Sahel rainfall are first selected through the near-surface April–May information and several experimental hindcasts provided. We then discuss the skills achieved using regression techniques and cross-validated discriminant functions. In that context, 8/11 of the driest seasons and 8/10 of the wettest are correctly predicted. Finally using completely independent training and working periods we show that better and significant hin…

A statistical investigation of Sahelian onset predictability using NCEP/DOE2 reanalysis (1979-2004)

International audience

Interacción entre el Monzón de África Occidental y el clima Mediterráneo en verano: Artículo de revisión

Although in the framework of the global climate research the Mediterranean climate variability and the West African Monsoon (WAM) dynamics have been considered for a long time as “passive” systems, i.e., prone to the influence of large scale ocean and atmospheric variability, over the last decade many studies have been dedicated to the WAM-Mediterranean interaction and the active role of these climate systems has been highlighted. This article presents the WAM-Mediterranean teleconnection through an overview of the recent literature, describing the observational evidences and the dynamical mechanisms underlying this climate teleconnection. The influence of the Mediterranean Sea thermal anom…

Sea Surface Temperature Fields Associated with West African Rainfall Anomaly Types

Abstract Four West African rainfall anomaly types are defined in relation to the northern summer rainfall departure signs in the Sahel and in the Guinean region in order to investigate the statistical links between interannual variability of West African rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) through the period 1950–90. Composite analysis depicts the setup of four different mean SST anomaly fields. Drought over all of West Africa is associated with the growth of positive SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific and in the Indian Ocean, and negative SST anomalies in the northern Atlantic and in the Gulf of Guinea. In contrast, drought limited to the Sahel corresponds mostly to a northward ex…

Seasonal evolution of boundary layer heat content in the West African monsoon from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1968-1998)

Using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) dataset over the period 1968–1998, the basic relationships between July and September monsoon circulation variations over West Africa and monthly meridional distribution of moist static energy (MSE) content in the boundary layer are portrayed. Wet minus dry stratified analyses relative to Sudan–Sahel rainfall show that particular April–June meridional patterns of near-surface MSE contents, south of 10°N, could control the amplitude and timing of the monsoon rainy season. Relative to the driest July–September situations, the wettest ones have been, on average, preceded by delayed but…

Advances in the analyses of dust/climate and meningitis relationships based on a multidisciplinary approach

International audience

Detecting the West African monsoon onset

International audience

West African Monsoon influence on the summer Euro-Atlantic circulation

International audience; The West African Monsoon (WAM) influence on the interannual variability of the summer atmospheric circulation over North Atlantic and Europe is investigated over the period 1971-2000. A set of sensitivity experiments performed through the Arpege-Climat atmospheric general circulation model is analyzed, using the so-called "grid-point nudging" technique, where the simulated atmospheric fields in the WAM region are relaxed towards the ERA40 reanalysis. Observations confirm that a sizable part of the Euro-Atlantic circulation variability is related to the WAM, with anomalies of reinforced convection in the Sudan-Sahel region associated with positive North Atlantic Oscil…

"About the potential role of dust aerosols on the meningitis disease in Western Africa”

International audience

About the potential role of desert dust in the West African meningitis epidemics

Spring to summer changes in the West African monsoon through NCEP/NCAR reanalyses (1968–1998)

[1] This article focuses on the spring to summer evolutions of the West African monsoon from an energetic point of view; it uses NCEP/NCAR reanalyses along with observed and simulated rainfall data over the period 1968–1998. The results show that the West African monsoon can be viewed as a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system phased with the zenithal evolution of solar radiation which maintains its thermally direct circulation by pumping, from the surface, enthalpy mainly in spring and latent energy in summer. In this context the horizontal energy gradients in the boundary layer play a key role during the spring to summer transition. At the beginning of spring, the moist static energy (MSE)…

Weather Regimes in the Euro-Atlantic and Mediterranean Sector, and Relationship with West African Rainfall over the 1989–2008 Period from a Self-Organizing Maps Approach

Abstract Weather regimes (WRs) have been defined over the Euro-Mediterranean region (15°–70°N, 60°W–60°E) from May to October using the daily sea level pressure, 700-hPa geopotential height, and specific humidity from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA)-Interim over the 1989–2008 period. Computations are based on a neural network classification technique referred to as self-organizing maps, and the WRs produced can be used by the scientific community for comparison with other periods, projection onto model outputs, seasonal prediction, or teleconnection studies. The article particularly examines the relationship between WRs and West Africa (WA) rainfall,…

Detection of intra-seasonnal leading signals for the rainfall onset over the Sudanian and Sahelian belts : experimental hindcast

International audience

VERTICAL MOTION CHANGES RELATED TO NORTH-EAST BRAZIL RAINFALL VARIABILITY: A GCM SIMULATION

The atmospheric structure over north-east Brazil during anomalous rainfall years is studied in the 11 levels of the outputs of the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique atmospheric general circulation model (LMD AGCM). Seven 19-year simulations were performed using observed sea-surface temperature (SST) corresponding to the period 1970– 1988. The ensemble mean is calculated for each month of the period, leading to an ensemble-averaged simulation. The simulated March-April rainfall is in good agreement with observations. Correlations of simulated rainfall and three SST indices relative to the equatorial Pacific and northern and southern parts of the Atlantic Ocean exhibit stronger relationsh…

Monsoon onset over Sudan-Sahel: Simulation by the regional scale model MM5.

[1] The Mesoscale Model MM5 is used to study the regional features of the West African Monsoon onset. In order to increase the results, simulations are carried out for eight consecutive seasons (March to September) of the years 1994 to 2001. The results show that the model can reproduce the dynamical features of the monsoon in a reasonably good manner but the seasonal cycle seems enhanced. It is hypothesized that overestimated rainfall amounts could be related to a poor representation of the land surface characteristics. Nevertheless, the mean simulated monsoon onset dates are similar to those find in the CMAP data set. The onset is characterized by an apparent increase in zonal flow that c…

An OLR based West African monsoon onset index

International audience

Time evolution of observed July–September sea surface temperature-Sahel climate teleconnection with removed quasi-global effect (1900–2008)

[1] Using sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation, and atmospheric information, this statistical study revisits the questions of the July–September SST-Sahel teleconnection variability after removing impact of quasi-global SSTs over the period 1900–2008. The eastern Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean dominate the relationship, both in terms of intensity and time stability, with significant values in 52% and 47% of years, respectively. More than two thirds of the rainy seasons classified as dry (wet) and 16 out of 18 (12 out of 15) of those classified as very dry (very wet) are concomitant of negative (positive) differences between the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean. Correlations wi…

Cohérence spatiale et prévisibilité potentielle du démarrage de la saison des pluies en Afrique soudano-sahélienne

Influence of the Mediterranean Sea on the West African monsoon: Intraseasonal variability in numerical simulations

[1] The influence of May to September sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea on the West African monsoon is investigated, analyzing the outputs of numerical sensitivity experiments performed using three atmospheric general circulation models (Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle, European/Hamburg, and University of California, Los Angeles) in the framework of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis project. The precipitation and atmospheric dynamics response to the SST forcing is explored, in terms of intraseasonal variability, evaluating the results from the individual models and from the multimodel mean. A positive precipitation response to wa…

Sahel droughts and Enso dynamics

Correlations between summer Sahel rainfall and Southern Oscillation Index has increased during the last thirty years. At high frequency time scale (periods lower than 8 years), an intertropical Atlantic zonal divergent circulation anomaly is forced by the difference of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies between the eastern equatorial parts of Pacific and Atlantic. This zonal connection worked well during most of the E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events occurring after 1970; positive/negative SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific/Atlantic led to rainfall deficits over the whole West Africa. At low frequency time scale (periods greater than 8 years), positive SST anomalies in the In…

The ADCEM project : Impacts of dust/climate on meningitis in the Sahel

Interannual and decadal SST-forced responses of the West African monsoon

International audience; We review the studies carried out during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)-EU on the changes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST)-West African monsoon (WAM) covariability at multidecadal timescales, together with the influence of global warming (GW). The results obtained in the AMMA-EU suggest the importance of the background state, modulated by natural and anthropogenic variability, in the appearance of different interannual modes. The lack of reliability of current coupled models in giving a realistic assessment for WAM in the future is also stated.

Global atmospheric response to specific linear combinations of the main SST modes. Part I: numerical experiments and preliminary results

Abstract. This article investigates through numerical experiments the controversial question of the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena on climate according to large-scale and regional-scale interhemispheric thermal contrast. Eight experiments (two considering only inversed Atlantic thermal anomalies and six combining ENSO warm phase with large-scale interhemispheric contrast and Atlantic anomaly patterns) were performed with the Météo-France atmospheric general circulation model. The definition of boundary conditions from observed composites and principal components is presented and preliminary results concerning the month of August, especially over West Africa and the …