Has pharmaceutical research become more scientific?

Pharmaceutical research continues to be highly empirical, despite some recent writings arguing that it has become more scientific. Contrary to a study asserting that Mevacor, Tagamet, and Capoten demonstrate the success of targeted research, these drugs were discovered only after many years of following leads. Two hypotheses implied by the proposition that pharmaceutical research has become more scientific are tested. The first hypothesis is that the uncertainty of research has fallen. The second is that the number of publications by scientists in the industry has increased. Both are rejected.