6533b7d0fe1ef96bd125aecb

RESEARCH PRODUCT

How to remove the testing bias in CoV-2 statistics

Klaus Waelde

subject

medicine.medical_specialty2019-20 coronavirus outbreakIndex (economics)Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)business.industryPublic healthSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)StatisticsMedicinebusinessEpidemic model

description

BACKGROUNDPublic health measures and private behaviour are based on reported numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Some argue that testing influences the confirmed number of infections.OBJECTIVES/METHODSDo time series on reported infections and the number of tests allow one to draw conclusions about actual infection numbers? A SIR model is presented where the true numbers of susceptible, infectious and removed individuals are unobserved. Testing is also modelled.RESULTSOfficial confirmed infection numbers are likely to be biased and cannot be compared over time. The bias occurs because of different reasons for testing (e.g. by symptoms, representative or testing travellers). The paper illustrates the bias and works out the effect of the number of tests on the number of reported cases. The paper also shows that the positive rate (the ratio of positive tests to the total number of tests) is uninformative in the presence of non-representative testing.CONCLUSIONSA severity index for epidemics is proposed that is comparable over time. This index is based on Covid-19 cases and can be obtained if the reason for testing is known.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2020-10-16
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.14.20212431