6533b7d8fe1ef96bd126aca5
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Testing for Financial Contagion Between Developed and Emerging Markets During the 1997 East Asian Crisis
Philip ArestisPhilip ArestisGuglielmo Maria CaporaleAndrea CipolliniAndrea CipolliniNicola Spagnolosubject
MacroeconomicsEstimationHeteroscedasticityEmpirical researchFinancial contagionEconomicsEast AsiaMonetary economicsEndogeneityEmerging marketsDeveloped countrydescription
In this paper we examine whether during the 1997 East Asian crisis there was any contagion from the four largest economies in the region (Thailand, Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia) to a number of developed countries (Japan, UK, Germany and France). Following Forbes and Rigobon (2002), we test for contagion as a significant positive shift in the correlation between asset returns, taking into account heteroscedasticity and endogeneity bias. Furthermore, we improve on earlier empirical studies by carrying out a full sample test of the stability of the system that relies on more plausible (over)identifying restrictions. The estimation results provide some evidence of contagion, in particular from Japan (the major nternational lender in the region), which drastically cut its credit lines to the other Asian countries in 1997.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-01-01 | SSRN Electronic Journal |