6533b7d8fe1ef96bd126b7d8
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Incorporating stand level risk management options into forest decision support systems
Rami SaadLjusk Ola ErikssonKyle Eyvindsonsubject
Decision support systemOperations researchComputer scienceForest management0211 other engineering and technologiesforest managementSoil Science02 engineering and technologyrisk preferencesvalue at riskconditional value at risklcsh:ForestryriskitEcology Evolution Behavior and SystematicsRisk management040101 forestry021103 operations researchForest inventoryPresent valuebusiness.industrymetsänkäsittelyEnvironmental resource managementInformation technologyForestryrisk preferences; forest management; inventory error; value at risk; conditional value at risk04 agricultural and veterinary sciencesExpected shortfalllcsh:SD1-669.50401 agriculture forestry and fisheriesmetsänhoitoriskianalyysibusinessinventory errorValue at riskdescription
Aim of study: To examine methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty to stand level forest decisions. Area of study: A case study examines a small forest holding from Jonkoping, Sweden. Material and methods: We incorporate empirically estimated uncertainty into the simulation through a Monte Carlo approach when simulating the forest stands for the next 100 years. For the iterations of the Monte Carlo approach, errors were incorporated into the input data which was simulated according to the Heureka decision support system. Both the Value at Risk and the Conditional Value at Risk of the net present value are evaluated for each simulated stand. Main results: Visual representation of the errors can be used to highlight which decision would be most beneficial dependent on the decision maker’s opinion of the forest inventory results. At a stand level, risk preferences can be rather easily incorporated into the current forest decision support software. Research highlights: Forest management operates under uncertainty and risk. Methods are available to describe this risk in an understandable fashion for the decision maker.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-31 | Forest Systems |