6533b7ddfe1ef96bd1273d1a
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load
Angel PardoVicente MeneuEnric Valorsubject
Economics and Econometricsbusiness.industryWeather derivativeDeregulationGeneral EnergyAutoregressive modelEconometricsEconomicsPredictive powerElectricity marketElectricityListing (finance)businessEnergy economicsdescription
Abstract Deregulation of the Spanish electricity market in 1998 and the possible listing of electricity or weather derivative contracts have encouraged the study of the relationship between electricity demand and weather in Spain. In this paper, a transfer function intervention model is developed for forecasting daily electricity load from cooling and heating degree–days. The influence of weather and seasonality is proved, and is significant even when the autoregressive effects and the dynamic specification of the temperature are taken into account. The estimated general model shows a high predictive power. The results and information presented in this paper could be of interest for current users and potential traders in the deregulated Spanish electricity market.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002-01-01 | Energy Economics |