Valūtas apmaiņas kursu volatilitātes prognozēšana un simulēšana

6533b821fe1ef96bd127c696

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Valūtas apmaiņas kursu volatilitātes prognozēšana un simulēšana

Jānis Zandersons

subject

description

Valūtas apmaiņas kursa volatilitātes jeb svārstīguma modelēšana un prognozēšana, izmantojot ekonometriskus modeļus, pēdējos gados, īpaši saistībā ar globālo finanšu krīzi, kad pieaug nenoteiktība un mazinās uzticība tirgiem, gūst arvien lielāku ievērību. Valūtas kursa volatilitāte ietekmē starptautiskās tirdzniecības apjomu, investīcijas, konkurētspēju un citus ekonomiskos rādītājus. Maģistra darbā pētīti valūtu pāri EUR/CHF, EUR/AUD un USD/JPY. Aplūkojot laika periodu no 2009. gada līdz 2013. gadam, katram no valūtu pāriem izveidoti GARCH tipa modeļi, kas spēj modelēt ar valūtas kursu volatilitāti saistītos efektus, proti, asimetrijas efektus uz pozitīviem un negatīviem šokiem, volatilitātes klasteru veidošanās efektus, kā arī sviras efektus. Darba uzdevums ir atrast, kāda tipa GARCH modeļi ir piemērotākie katram no šiem valūtu pāriem, un izpētīt, kā tas, cik lielā mērā globālā finanšu krīze skārusi kādu valsti, ietekmē ekonometrisko modeļu spēju modelēt valūtas kursa volatilitāti.

year	journal	country	edition	language
2013-01-01

https://dspace.lu.lv/dspace/handle/7/12905

PEPhysical Sciences and Engineering
- PE2Fundamental Constituents of Matter
  - PE2_1Theory of fundamental interactions
  - PE2_2 Phenomenology of fundamental interactions
  - PE2_3Experimental particle physics with accelerators
  - PE2_4Experimental particle physics without accelerators
  - PE2_6Nuclear, hadron and heavy ion physics
  - PE2_8Gas and plasma physics
  - PE2_5Classical and quantum physics of gravitational interactions
  - PE2_7Nuclear and particle astrophysics
  - PE2_9 Electromagnetism
  - PE2_10Atomic, molecular physics
  - PE2_11Ultra-cold atoms and molecules
  - PE2_18Equilibrium and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics: steady states and dynamics
  - PE2_14Lasers, ultra-short lasers and laser physics
  - PE2_17Metrology and measurement
  - PE2_16Non-linear physics
  - PE2_12Optics, non-linear optics and nano-optics
  - PE2_13Quantum optics and quantum information
  - PE2_15Thermodynamics
- PE1Mathematics
  - PE1_1Logic and foundations
  - PE1_6Geometry and global analysis
  - PE1_8Analysis
  - PE1_7Topology
  - PE1_9Operator algebras and functional analysis
  - PE1_10ODE and dynamical systems
  - PE1_12Mathematical physics
  - PE1_11Theoretical aspects of partial differential equations
  - PE1_13Probability
  - PE1_14Mathematical statistics
  - PE1_15Generic statistical methodology and modelling
  - PE1_4 Algebraic and complex geometry
  - PE1_19Scientific computing and data processing
  - PE1_2Algebra
  - PE1_20Control theory, optimisation and operational research
  - PE1_21Application of mathematics in sciences
  - PE1_22Application of mathematics in industry and society
  - PE1_5Lie groups, Lie algebras
  - PE1_18Numerical analysis
  - PE1_16Discrete mathematics and combinatorics
  - PE1_17Mathematical aspects of computer science
  - PE1_3Number theory
- PE3Condensed Matter Physics
  - PE3_1Structure of solids, material growth and characterisation
  - PE3_2Mechanical and acoustical properties of condensed matter, lattice dynamics
  - PE3_3Transport properties of condensed matter
  - PE3_4Electronic properties of materials, surfaces, interfaces, nanostructures
  - PE3_6Macroscopic quantum phenomena, e.g. superconductivity, superfluidity, quantum Hall effect
  - PE3_5Physical properties of semiconductors and insulators
  - PE3_8Magnetism and strongly correlated systems
  - PE3_7Spintronics
  - PE3_9 Condensed matter – beam interactions (photons, electrons, etc.)
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  - PE6_1Computer architecture, embedded systems, operating systems
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  - PE6_11Machine learning, statistical data processing and applications using signal processing (e.g. speech, image, video)
  - PE6_6Algorithms and complexity, distributed, parallel and network algorithms, algorithmic game theory
  - PE6_4Theoretical computer science, formal methods, automata
  - PE6_8Computer graphics, computer vision, multimedia, computer games
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  - PE7_2Electrical engineering: power components and/or systems
  - PE7_7Signal processing
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  - PE7_9Man-machine interfaces
  - PE7_5(Micro- and nano-) electronic, optoelectronic and photonic components
  - PE7_6Communication systems, wireless technology, high-frequency technology
  - PE7_3Simulation engineering and modelling
  - PE7_10Robotics
  - PE7_4(Micro- and nano-) systems engineering
  - PE7_12Electrical energy production, distribution, applications
  - PE7_11Components and systems for applications (in e.g. medicine, biology, environment)
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  - PE8_5Fluid mechanics
  - PE8_4Computational engineering
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  - PE8_8Propulsion engineering, e.g. hydraulic, turbo, piston, hybrid engines
  - PE8_7Mechanical engineering
  - PE8_11Environmental engineering, e.g. sustainable design, waste and water treatment, recycling, regeneration or recovery of compounds, carbon capture & storage
  - PE8_9Production technology, process engineering
  - PE8_13Industrial bioengineering
  - PE8_14Automotive and rail engineering; multi-/inter-modal transport engineering
  - PE8_10Manufacturing engineering and industrial design
  - PE8_12Naval/marine engineering
- PE9Universe Sciences
  - PE9_2Solar system science
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  - PE9_4Astrobiology
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  - PE9_7The Milky Way
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  - PE9_9Cosmology and large-scale structure, dark matter, dark energy
  - PE9_10Relativistic astrophysics and compact objects
  - PE9_12High-energy and particle astronomy
  - PE9_11Gravitational wave astronomy
  - PE9_13Astronomical instrumentation and data, e.g. telescopes, detectors, techniques, archives, analyses
- PE10Earth System Science
  - PE10_2Meteorology, atmospheric physics and dynamics
  - PE10_7Physics of earth’s interior, seismology, geodynamics
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  - PE10_3Climatology and climate change
  - PE10_16Ozone, upper atmosphere, ionosphere
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  - PE10_17Hydrology, hydrogeology, engineering and environmental geology, water and soil pollution
  - PE10_18Cryosphere, dynamics of snow and ice cover, sea ice, permafrosts and ice sheets
  - PE10_20Geohazards
  - PE10_19Planetary geology and geophysics
  - PE10_21Earth system modelling and interactions
  - PE10_14Earth observations from space/remote sensing
  - PE10_11Geochemistry, cosmochemistry, crystal chemistry, isotope geochemistry, thermodynamics
  - PE10_13Physical geography, geomorphology
  - PE10_12Sedimentology, soil science, palaeontology, earth evolution
- PE11Materials Engineering
  - PE11_2Engineering of metals and alloys
  - PE11_1Engineering of biomaterials, biomimetic, bioinspired and bio-enabled materials
  - PE11_3Engineering of ceramics and glasses
  - PE11_4Engineering of polymers and plastics
  - PE11_5Engineering of composites and hybrid materials
  - PE11_6Engineering of carbon materials
  - PE11_7Engineering of metal oxides
  - PE11_8Engineering of alternative established or emergent materials
  - PE11_9Nanomaterials engineering, e.g. nanoparticles, nanoporous materials, 1D & 2D nanomaterials
  - PE11_10Soft materials engineering, e.g. gels, foams, colloids
  - PE11_11Porous materials engineering, e.g. covalent-organic, metal-organic, porous aromatic frameworks
  - PE11_12Semi-conducting and magnetic materials engineering
  - PE11_13Metamaterials engineering
  - PE11_14Computational methods for materials engineering
LSLife Sciences
- LS1Molecules of Life: Biological Mechanisms, Structures and Functions
  - LS1_2Biochemistry
  - LS1_1Macromolecular complexes including interactions involving nucleic acids, proteins, lipids and carbohydrates
  - LS1_3DNA and RNA biology
  - LS1_4Protein biology
  - LS1_5Lipid biology
  - LS1_6Glycobiology
  - LS1_11Chemical biology
  - LS1_12Protein design
  - LS1_13Early translational research and drug design
  - LS1_14Innovative methods and modelling in molecular, structural and synthetic biology
  - LS1_10Synthetic biology
  - LS1_8Structural biology
  - LS1_9Molecular mechanisms of signalling processes
  - LS1_7Molecular biophysics, biomechanics, bioenergetics
- LS2Integrative Biology: from Genes and Genomes to Systems
  - LS2_1Genetics
  - LS2_3Epigenetics
  - LS2_2Gene editing
  - LS2_4Gene regulation
  - LS2_5Genomics
  - LS2_6Metagenomics
  - LS2_7Transcriptomics
  - LS2_8Proteomics
  - LS2_9Metabolomics
  - LS2_10Glycomics/Lipidomics
  - LS2_11Bioinformatics and computational biology
  - LS2_12Biostatistics
  - LS2_14Genetic diseases
  - LS2_16Innovative methods and modelling in integrative biology
  - LS2_13Systems biology
  - LS2_15Integrative biology for personalised medicine
- LS4Physiology in Health, Disease and Ageing
  - LS4_1Organ and tissue physiology and pathophysiology
  - LS4_4Endocrinology
  - LS4_3Physiology of ageing
  - LS4_2Comparative physiology
  - LS4_5Non-hormonal mechanisms of inter-organ and tissue communication
  - LS4_6Microbiome and host physiology
  - LS4_7Nutrition and exercise physiology
  - LS4_8Impact of stress (including environmental stress) on physiology
  - LS4_9Metabolism and metabolic disorders, including diabetes and obesity
  - LS4_10The cardiovascular system and cardiovascular diseases
  - LS4_11Haematopoiesis and blood diseases
  - LS4_12Cancer
  - LS4_13Other non-communicable diseases (except disorders of the nervous system and immunity-related diseases)
- LS3Cell Biology, Development, Stem Cells and Regeneration
  - LS3_4Cell junctions, cell adhesion, the extracellular matrix, cell communication
  - LS3_5Cell signalling and signal transduction, exosome biology
  - LS3_6Organelle biology and trafficking
  - LS3_7Mechanobiology of cells, tissues and organs
  - LS3_8Embryogenesis, pattern formation, morphogenesis
  - LS3_9Cell differentiation, formation of tissues and organs
  - LS3_10Developmental genetics
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  - LS3_3Cell behaviour, including control of cell shape, cell migration
  - LS3_13Stem cells
  - LS3_14Regeneration
  - LS3_15Development of cell-based therapeutic approaches for tissue regeneration
  - LS3_17Theoretical modelling in cellular, developmental and regenerative biology
  - LS3_16Functional imaging of cells and tissues
  - LS3_1Cell cycle, cell division and growth
  - LS3_2Cell senescence, cell death, autophagy, cell ageing
- LS5Neuroscience and Disorders of the Nervous System
  - LS5_1Neuronal cells
  - LS5_3Neural development and related disorders
  - LS5_5Neural networks and plasticity
  - LS5_10Ageing of the nervous system
  - LS5_11Neurological and neurodegenerative disorders
  - LS5_12Mental disorders
  - LS5_7Sensory systems, sensation and perception, including pain
  - LS5_13Nervous system injuries and trauma, stroke
  - LS5_14Repair and regeneration of the nervous system
  - LS5_15Neuroimmunology, neuroinflammation
  - LS5_16Systems and computational neuroscience (e.g. modelling, simulation, brain oscillations, connectomics)
  - LS5_18Innovative methods and tools for neuroscience
  - LS5_17Imaging in neuroscience
  - LS5_9Neural basis of cognition (e.g. learning, memory, attention, emotions, speech)
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  - LS5_8Neural basis of behaviour (e.g. sleep, consciousness, addiction)
  - LS5_4Neural stem cells
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- LS6Immunity, Infection and Immunotherapy
  - LS6_1Innate immunity
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  - LS7_8Effectiveness of interventions, including resistance to therapies
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  - LS8_12Microbial ecology and evolution
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  - LS8_14Ecophysiology, from organisms to ecosystems
  - LS8_15Theoretical developments and modelling in environmental biology, ecology, and evolution
- LS9Biotechnology and Biosystems Engineering
  - LS9_3Bioengineering of cells, tissues, organs and organisms
  - LS9_2Applied genetics, gene editing and transgenic organisms
  - LS9_4Microbial biotechnology and bioengineering
  - LS9_5Food biotechnology and bioengineering
  - LS9_6Marine biotechnology and bioengineering
  - LS9_7Environmental biotechnology and bioengineering
  - LS9_8Applied plant sciences, plant breeding, agroecology and soil biology
  - LS9_10Veterinary and applied animal sciences
  - LS9_9Plant pathology and pest resistance
  - LS9_11Biomass production and utilisation, biofuels
  - LS9_12Ecotoxicology, biohazards and biosafety
  - LS9_1Bioengineering for synthetic and chemical biology
SHSocial Sciences and Humanities
- SH2Institutions, Governance and Legal Systems
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  - SH1_7Accounting, asset prices, auditing
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  - SH1_5Corporate finance; international finance
- SH3The Social World and Its Interactions
  - SH3_1Social structure, social mobility, social innovation
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  - SH3_5Social attitudes and beliefs
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- SH4The Human Mind and Its Complexity
  - SH4_1Cognitive basis of human development, developmental disorders; comparative cognition
  - SH4_2Personality and social cognition; emotion
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- SH6The Study of the Human Past
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