6533b825fe1ef96bd128266b

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Parameter Sensitivity and the Quality of Model Predictions

Alfred SeitzDetlef OertelHans Joachim Poethke

subject

Quality (physics)Estimation theoryMonte Carlo methodLake ecosystemTime horizonVariance (accounting)Sensitivity (control systems)Statistical physicsQuantitative Biology::OtherPhytoplankton biomassMathematics

description

Using SIM-PEL, a comprehensive model for the pelagic compartment of lake ecosystems, we analyse synergistic toxicant effects in lake ecosystems. We show, that — even for a rather simple model — model predictions may be strongly dependent on the time horizon of the prediction and on the quality of input parameters. For longer time spans, small errors in parameter estimation may lead to qualitatively wrong prediction of toxicant effects. Monte Carlo simulations allow to take errors in parameter estimation into account, but they need rather good estimates of parameter variance.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
1994-01-01
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0962-8_32