6533b82afe1ef96bd128c779

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Causal Models for Monitoring University Ordinary Financing Fund

Salvatore MarcantonioAntonella Plaia

subject

bayesian inference causal modelling counterfactuals University Ordinary Financing FundSettore SECS-S/01 - Statistica

description

Recently iterated decreasing government transfers and an increasing proportion of budget allotted basing on competitive performances, took Italian Universities started struggling with competition for funds, in particular for the University Ordinary Financing Fund (FFO). Aim of this paper is monitoring variables responsible for FFO indicators, where monitoring means: describing, analysing retrospectively, predicting and intervening on variables responsible for indicators. All this aims can be achieved by statistical techniques that should be theoretically equipped with the distinction between predicting under observation and predicting under intervention, in order to provide correct answers to the distinct tasks of pure out of sample extrapolation and policy making.

http://hdl.handle.net/10447/65151