6533b82cfe1ef96bd128ec8c
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Tourism recovery amid COVID-19: The case of Lombardy, Italy
Davide ProvenzanoSerena Volosubject
Coronavirus pandemic2019-20 coronavirus outbreakCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Social distanceGeography Planning and DevelopmentTourism forecastingmedicine.disease_causeSettore SECS-P/06 - Economia ApplicataSARIMAGeographyEconomySettore SECS-S/06 -Metodi Mat. dell'Economia e d. Scienze Attuariali e Finanz.Tourism Leisure and Hospitality ManagementmedicineTourismOvernights staysCoronavirusdescription
Travel restrictions and social distancing imposed to curb the spread of the new coronavirus have been strongly hitting tourism since March 2020. Tourism forecasting literature addressed the effects of shocks in contexts characterized by a predictable route to recovery. COVID-19 is without precedents. In this article, monthly overnight stays for the period January 2010 to December 2020 are used to estimate the impact of the pandemic in Lombardy, Italy’s most affected region. A model-based approach is implemented, and the number of overnight stays up to December 2023 is forecasted. Four models are compared. Estimation results from an augmented SARIMA model suggest that, provided a new lockdown is averted, the domestic segment will recover in a relatively short period of time, whereas international tourism might need an external intervention to speed up its recovery process.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-09-17 |