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RESEARCH PRODUCT
Disentangling conditional effects of multiple regime shifts on Atlantic cod productivity
Jeffrey A. HutchingsJeffrey A. HutchingsTommi PeräläEsben Moland Olsensubject
Sexual Reproduction0106 biological sciencesliikakalastusClimatePopulation DynamicsMarine and Aquatic SciencesAquacultureOceanography01 natural sciencesturskaAbundance (ecology)Regime shiftAtlantic OceanMultidisciplinarybiologyQTemperatureREukaryotaAgriculturePlanktonOceanographyGadus morhuaProductivity (ecology)OsteichthyesVertebratesPhysical SciencesMedicineResearch ArticleSpawningDeath RatesFish BiologyympäristötekijätClimate ChangeScienceFishingModes of ReproductionFisheriesClimate changeCod010603 evolutionary biologyZooplanktonZooplanktonPopulation MetricsAnimalsMarine ecosystem14. Life underwaterOcean TemperatureEcosystemPopulation Biologybayesilainen menetelmäkalakannat010604 marine biology & hydrobiologyOrganismsBiology and Life SciencesBayes TheoremilmastonmuutoksetProbability TheoryProbability Distributionbiology.organism_classificationInvertebratesaikasarja-analyysiFishNorth Atlantic oscillationEarth ScienceskannanvaihtelutEnvironmental scienceAtlantic codZoologyMathematicsDevelopmental BiologyVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480description
AbstractRegime shifts are increasingly prevalent in the ecological literature. However, definitions vary, and many detection methods are subjective. Here, we employ an operationally objective means of identifying regime shifts, using a Bayesian online change-point detection algorithm able to simultaneously identify shifts in the mean and(or) variance of time series data. We detected multiple regime shifts in long-term (59-154 years) patterns of coastal Norwegian Atlantic cod (>70% decline) and putative drivers of cod productivity: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); sea-surface temperature; zooplankton abundance; fishing mortality (F). The consequences of an environmental or climate-related regime shift on cod productivity are accentuated when regime shifts coincide, fishing mortality is high, and populations are small. The analyses suggest that increasingFincreasingly sensitized cod in the mid 1970s and late 1990s to regime shifts in NAO, zooplankton abundance, and water temperature. Our work underscores the necessity of accounting for human-induced mortality in regime shift analyses of marine ecosystems.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-01 | PLOS ONE |