6533b833fe1ef96bd129b7d0

RESEARCH PRODUCT

How to formulate an accident prediction model for urban intersections.

subject

description

Several safety prediction models and methods have been developed to eliminate the relationship between the expected accident frequency and various urban intersection geometry and operational attributes. It is generally accepted that accident rates tend to be higher at intersections than on through sections of a road. This is particularly frequent in urban area where roads are characterized by intersections in close succession; moreover, the safe and effective operations of the urban road system can be significantly affected by safety conditions at intersections. In this paper models and methods designed to understand and to predict the accident process at urban intersections are reviewed. In particular, this study intends to show why the statistical modeling approach is useful for accident analysis and how it can be applied to provide some general advice for conducting safety evaluations with accident data. An exploratory example describes how to formulate an accident model for urban intersections by the analysis of significant explanatory variables affecting accident phenomenon and by the modeling of accident and traffic data for urban intersections. Finally, in view of the recent great interest in the safety problems of urban roads with particular regard to intersections, the research intends to summarize the main features of the accident intersection models and their part in developing quantitative safety effectiveness measures for installation design improvements.