6533b834fe1ef96bd129cb0e

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Hedging of Spatial Temperature Risk with Market-Traded Futures

Jürgen PotthoffFred Espen BenthAndrea Barth

subject

Mathematical optimizationStochastic differential equationWork (thermodynamics)Random fieldApplied MathematicsStochastic simulationEconometricsVariance (accounting)Spatial dependenceHedge (finance)Futures contractFinanceMathematics

description

The main objective of this work is to construct optimal temperature futures from available market-traded contracts to hedge spatial risk. Temperature dynamics are modelled by a stochastic differential equation with spatial dependence. Optimal positions in market-traded futures minimizing the variance are calculated. Examples with numerical simulations based on a fast algorithm for the generation of random fields are presented.

https://doi.org/10.1080/13504861003722385