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RESEARCH PRODUCT
Parameter Uncertainty in Shallow Rainfall-triggered Landslide Modeling at Basin Scale: A Probabilistic Approach
Y. G. DialynasElisa ArnoneElisa ArnoneLeonardo NotoRafael L. Brassubject
Hydrological ModelingSettore ICAR/02 - Costruzioni Idrauliche E Marittime E IdrologiaProbabilistic logicUncertaintyRainfall-Triggered LandslideEarth and Planetary Sciences(all)Second moment of areaLandslideGeneral MedicineStructural basinRainfall-Triggered LandslidesFactor of safetySoil waterRainfall-Triggered Landslides; Hydrological Modeling; Uncertainty; Probability.Soil moisture contentBasin scaleGeomorphologyGeologyProbabilityProbability.description
Abstract This study proposes a methodology to account for the uncertainty of hydrological and mechanical parameters in coupled distributed hydrological-stability models for shallow landslide assessment. A probabilistic approach was implemented in an existing eco-hydrological and landslide model by randomizing soil cohesion, friction angle and soil retention parameters. The model estimates the probability of failure through an assumed theoretical Factor of Safety (FS) distribution, conditioned on soil moisture content. The time-dependent and spatially distributed FS statistics are approximated by the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. The model was applied to the Rio Mameyes Basin, located in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-01-01 | Procedia Earth and Planetary Science |