Ražošanas nozarē strādājošo uzņēmumu bankrota prognozēšana Latvijā

6533b854fe1ef96bd12af8d5

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Ražošanas nozarē strādājošo uzņēmumu bankrota prognozēšana Latvijā

subject

Altmana modeļi lineārā diskriminantu analīze bankrota prognozēšana Matemātika loģistiskā regresija ražošanas nozares

description

Latvijā pēdējo gadu laikā pieaug bankrotējošo ražošanas uzņēmumu īpatsvars. Darba mērķis ir izstrādāt Latvijas apstākļiem atbilstošus ražošanas nozarē strādājošo uzņēmumu bankrota prognozēšanas modeļus. Iespējamību, ka uzņēmums var bankrotēt, ir lietderīgi zināt gan uzņēmumam, gan potenciālajiem uzņēmumu sadarbības partneriem. Darba pamatā tiek izmantota Altmana modeļu izstrādes metadoloģija bankrota prognozēšanai un tiek aprakstītas un izmantotas statistiskās klasificēšanas metodes - lineārā diskriminantu analīze un loģistiskā regresija, kuras tiek pielāgotas dažādām izlasēm un finanšu rādītāju kā skaidrojošo mainīgo kombinācijām, lai prognozētu vai ražošanas nozarē strādājošs uzņēmums bankrotēs nākamajā gadā. Labāko modeļu izvēles kritērijs ir bankrota prognozēšanas precizitāte ražošanas nozarē strādājošiem uzņēmumiem. Iegūtie labākie modeļi tiek analizēti un salīdzināti. Precīzākus rezultātus uzrāda loģistiskās regresijas modelis, bet modeļu trūkums ir nebankrotējošo ražošanas nozarē strādājošu uzņēmumu neprecīza klasificēšana. Izmantojot iegūtos labākos modeļus, ir iespējams simtu četrām ražošanas apakšnozarēm prognozēt bankrota iespējamību ar precizitāti virs 70%.

year	journal	country	edition	language
2017-01-01

https://dspace.lu.lv/dspace/handle/7/35474

PEPhysical Sciences and Engineering
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  - PE2_8Gas and plasma physics
  - PE2_5Classical and quantum physics of gravitational interactions
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  - PE2_10Atomic, molecular physics
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  - LS9_6Marine biotechnology and bioengineering
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SHSocial Sciences and Humanities
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