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RESEARCH PRODUCT

THE CURRENT ACCOUNT OF THE SPANISH ECONOMY, 1850-2016: WAS IT OPTIMAL?

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espanolWe analyse the possible optimality of the path followed by the current account of the Spanish economy over a very long period of almost 170 years (1850-2016), according to the intertemporal approach to the current account and using a present-value model. In particular, from the estimation of a bivariate vector autoregression model for the current account, we attempt to assess the extent to which the latter has been used to smooth private consumption over time in the presence of temporary shocks that the economy might suffer. In general, evidence does not seem to be particularly favourable to the validity of the model over the period of analysis. EnglishAnalizamos la posible optimalidad de la senda seguida por la balanza por cuenta corriente de la economia espanola durante un largo periodo de casi 170 anos (1850-2016), de acuerdo con el enfoque intertemporal de la cuenta corriente y utilizando un modelo de valor presente. En particular, a partir de la estimacion de autorregresion vectorial (VAR) bivariante para la cuenta corriente, intentamos evaluar hasta que punto esta se ha utilizado para suavizar el consumo privado a lo largo del tiempo ante perturbaciones temporales que la economia pudiera sufrir. En general, la evidencia no parece ser particularmente favorable a la validez del modelo durante el periodo de analisis.