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RESEARCH PRODUCT

DOBRO : a prediction error correcting robot under drifts

Eric BouilletTommi KärkkäinenAlexandr V. MaslovHoang Thanh LamMykola Pechenizkiy

subject

ta113Concept driftComputer scienceMean squared prediction error02 engineering and technologyARIMAconcept drifton-line prediction error correction020204 information systems0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineeringRobot020201 artificial intelligence & image processingAutoregressive integrated moving averageSimulation

description

We propose DOBRO, a light online learning module, which is equipped with a smart correction policy helping making decision to correct or not the given prediction depending on how likely the correction will lead to a better prediction performance. DOBRO is a standalone module requiring nothing more than a time series of prediction errors and it is flexible to be integrated into any black-box model to improve its performance under drifts. We performed evaluation in a real-world application with bus arrival time prediction problem. The obtained results show that DOBRO improved prediction performance significantly meanwhile it did not hurt the accuracy when drift does not happen.

10.1145/2851613.2851888https://doi.org/10.1145/2851613.2851888