6533b85ffe1ef96bd12c1283
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Knowing is half the battle: Seasonal forecasts, adaptive cropping systems, and the mediating role of private markets in Zambia
Giuseppe MaggioNicholas J. Sitkosubject
Economics and EconometricsBattleSociology and Political Sciencemedia_common.quotation_subjectDrought toleranceSouthern oscillationClimate changeManagement Monitoring Policy and LawDevelopmentHB0251Agricultural economicsGeographyAdaptation Agricultural practices Climate change Sub-Saharan Africa Weather forecasts ZambiaClimate change adaptationPsychological resilienceSettore SECS-P/01 - Economia PoliticaAgricultural marketCroppingFood Sciencemedia_commondescription
Abstract This paper examines how smallholders living in regions where a drought is forecasted adapt their farm practices in response to receiving seasonal forecast information. The article draws on a unique longitudinal dataset in Zambia, which collected information from farm households before and after a significant drought caused by the 2015/2016 El-Nino Southern Oscillation. It finds that farmers residing in areas forecasted to be drought-affected and receiving seasonal forecast information are significantly more likely to integrate drought tolerant crops into their cropping systems compared to similar households not receiving this information. Moreover, the probability that a farmer implements these adaptive farm management strategies in response to seasonal forecast information is found to increase substantially as the number of private grain buyers in the farmers’ village increases. This suggests that climate change adaptation and resilience strategies that integrate the generation and dissemination of weather information with agricultural market development can achieve greater impact on farmers’ adaptive responses than approaches that treat these activities in isolation.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-12-01 |