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RESEARCH PRODUCT

DeTreex Inductive Knowledge Acquisition System in Project Risk Assessment

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The aim of this paper is to present the possibility of employing DeTreex inductive knowledge acquisition system in project risk assessment. DeTreex from AITECH Artificial Intelligence Laboratory is a system for knowledge acquisition implementing the inductive machine learning method. Induction in the knowledge acquisition system draws on the induction of decision trees proposed by Quinlan. DeTreex was used to carry out the analysis of data elaborated for the purposes of project risk assessment.The problem of acquisition of knowledge of potential project risk sources, the structuring and processing of such knowledge is, in the case of project management, a relatively new and not fully researched area of study.In the proposed approach, we aim at formulating certain rules in the relations between risk probability and its impact on the risk level of a project. The experience and knowledge of experts is required in order to elaborate effective decision rules. The representation of risk parameters in the form of IF-THEN rules constitutes the basis for a knowledge base in the architecture of the proposed expert system, dedicated to project risk assessment. Project risk assessment using an inductive knowledge acquisition system based on decision tree induction is an original approach to the problem.