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RESEARCH PRODUCT

Searching for Threshold Effects in the Evolution of Budget Deficits: An Application to the Spanish Case

Vicente EsteveCarmen Díaz-roldánOscar Bajo-rubio

subject

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsDeficit spendingPublic economicsAutoregressive modeljel:E62EconomicsTarjel:H62FinanceFiscal policy Budget deficits Threshold effects TAR models.Fiscal policy

description

Abstract In this paper, we use recent developments on threshold autoregressive (TAR) models that allow us to derive endogenously threshold effects in the evolution of the Spanish budget deficit. Specifically, a mean-reverting dynamic behaviour of the budget deficit should be expected once such threshold is reached.

http://www2.fundacion-centra.org/pdfs/E200329.pdf