Search results for " Bayesian"

A Phylogenetic Analysis of Human Syntenies Revealed by Chromosome Painting in Euarchontoglires Orders

2010

To search for cytogenetic signatures that can help to clarify evolutionary affinities among the five orders within the Euarchontoglires clade, we focused on associations of conserved syntenic blocks that have been accumulated in the karyotypes of Primates (Strepsirhini and Haplorhini), five families of Rodentia, Scandentia (Tupaia belangeri), Dermoptera (Galeopterus variegatus) and Lagomorpha (Oryctolagus cuniculus). We examined available chromosome painting data to identify conserved chromosomes and chromosomal segments, and syntenic associations likely to have characterized the ancestral eutherian karyotype. The data set includes 161 characters that have been subjected to a concatenated a…

2021

The domestication and spreading of grapevine as well as the gene flow history had been described in many studies. We used a high-quality 7k SNP dataset of 1,038 Eurasian grape varieties with unique profiles to assess the population genetic diversity, structure, and relatedness, and to infer the most likely migration events. Comparisons of putative scenarios of gene flow throughout Europe from Caucasus helped to fit the more reliable migration routes around the Mediterranean Basin. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach made possible to provide a response to several questions so far remaining unsolved. Firstly, the assessment of genetic diversity and population structure within a we…

Benefits of a dance group intervention on institutionalized elder people: A Bayesian network approach

2018

[EN] The present study aims to explore the effects of an adapted classical dance intervention on the psychological and functional status of institutionalized elder people using a Bayesian network. All participants were assessed at baseline and after the 9 weeks period of the intervention. Measures included balance and gait, psychological well-being, depression, and emotional distress. According to the Bayesian network obtained, the dance intervention increased the likelihood of presenting better psychological well-being, balance, and gait. Besides, it also decreased the probabilities of presenting emotional distress and depression. These findings demonstrate that dancing has functional and …

A Spatio-temporal Probabilistic Model of Hazard and Crowd Dynamics in Disasters for Evacuation Planning

2013

Published version of a chapter in the book: Recent Trends in Applied Artificial Intelligence. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-38577-3_7 Managing the uncertainties that arise in disasters – such as ship fire – can be extremely challenging. Previous work has typically focused either on modeling crowd behavior or hazard dynamics, targeting fully known environments. However, when a disaster strikes, uncertainty about the nature, extent and further development of the hazard is the rule rather than the exception. Additionally, crowd and hazard dynamics are both intertwined and uncertain, making evacuation planning extremely difficult. To address this chal…

Modelling the presence of disease under spatial misalignment using Bayesian latent Gaussian models.

2015

Modelling patterns of the spatial incidence of diseases using local environmental factors has been a growing problem in the last few years. Geostatistical models have become popular lately because they allow estimating and predicting the underlying disease risk and relating it with possible risk factors. Our approach to these models is based on the fact that the presence/absence of a disease can be expressed with a hierarchical Bayesian spatial model that incorporates the information provided by the geographical and environmental characteristics of the region of interest. Nevertheless, our main interest here is to tackle the misalignment problem arising when information about possible covar…

Social Support and Resilience as Predictors of Prosocial Behaviors before and during COVID-19

2022

The objective of this research was to analyze the relationship between social support and resilience with prosocial behavior before and during the confinement caused by COVID-19. Materials and Methods: The participants were divided into a confined group (228 women and 84 men) and an unconfined group (153 women and 105 men), all of whom were university students. Instruments were applied to measure the variables proposed. Results: Social support predicted 24.4% of the variance in prosocial behavior among women and 12% among men in the confined group; no evidence of this relationship was found in the unconfined groups. Resilience predicted 7% of the variance in prosocial behavior among confine…

Cronología bayesiana aplicada a las intervenciones de Lluís Pericot en Cueva de la Cocina (1941 y 1945)

2017

Este capítulo tiene como objetivo la comprensión de la estratigrafía en Cueva de la Cocina, y más en concreto de las intervenciones realizadas por Pericot en el año 1941 y 1945. Para ello se hará uso del conjunto de dataciones radiocarbónicas disponibles para dichas intervenciones sobre las que se elaborarán diferentes modelos cronológicos a partir de la estadística bayesiana. Finalmente sobre los resultados de la modelización cronológica se discierne en torno a la ocupación mesolítica de la cueva a lo largo del Mesolítico reciente (entidad arqueológica conocida como Mesolítico geométrico), haciendo hincapié en las diferentes fases culturales (Geométrico A y B) y sus rangos cronológicos. Th…

A Naïve Sticky Information Model of Households’ Inflation Expectations

2009

This paper provides a simple epidemiology model where households, when forming their inflation expectations, rationally adopt the past release of inflation with certain probability rather than the forward-looking newspaper forecast as suggested in Carroll [2003, Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 269-298]. The posterior model probabilities based on the Michigan survey data strongly support the proposed model. We also extend the agent-based epidemiology model by deriving for it a simple adaptation, which is suitable for estimation. Our results show that this model is able to capture the heterogeneity in households’ expe…

Mesocarnivore community structuring in the presence of Africa's apex predator

2021

This work was supported by the Peace Parks Foundation; G.C.S. was funded by a doctoral grant from Fundacão para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT: PD/BD/114037/2015); L.H.S. was supported by the National Research Foundation, South Africa (UID: 107099 and 115040) and by the African Institute for Conservation Ecology. Apex predator reintroductions have proliferated across southern Africa, yet their ecological effects and proposed umbrella benefits of associated management lack empirical evaluations. Despite a rich theory on top-down ecosystem regulation via mesopredator suppression, a knowledge gap exists relating to the influence of lions (Panthera leo) over Africa's diverse mesocarnivore (less …

Spain in the euro: a general equilibrium analysis

2010

Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models combine microeconomic behavioural foundations with a full-system Bayesian likelihood estimation approach using key macro-economic variables. Because of the usefulness of this class ofmodels for addressing questions regarding the impact and consequences of alternative monetary policies they are nowadays widely used for forecasting and policy analysis at central banks and other institutions. In this paper we provide a brief description of the two main aggregate euro area models at the ECB. Both models share a common core but their detailed specification differs reflecting their specific focus and use. The New Area Wide Model (NAWM)…