Search results for " Crises"

TESTING FOR CONTAGION: A CONDITIONAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS

2005

Abstract In this paper, we test for contagion within the East Asian region, contagion being defined as a significant increase in the degree of comovement between stock returns in different countries. For this purpose, we use a parameter stability test, and, following [Rigobon, R., 2003a. On the measurement of the international propagation of shocks: is the transmission stable?, Journal of International Economics], we control for three types of bias, resulting from heteroscedasticity, endogeneity and omitted variable, respectively. The null of interdependence against the alternative of contagion is then tested as an overidentifying restriction. Unlike other studies, our approach is based on …

Financial crises in Spain: lessons from the last 150 years

2012

Financial crises are not unique to current financial systems. Are crises alike? Have they become more frequent, longer lasting and more severe since the 20th century? What does history tell us? The objective of this paper is to study the financial crises that have occurred in Spain over the last 150 years. We consider different types of crises (banking, currency and stock market crises), together with all their possible combinations, estimate their frequency by period and measure their length and depth. The main conclusion we obtain is that Spanish crises have been more frequent than in the rest of the world and have been more severe and more complex since 1973, as the 2007 crisis is confir…

The distributional effects of capital account liberalization

2018

Abstract Episodes of account liberalization increase the Gini measure of inequality, based on panel data estimates for 149 countries from 1970 to 2010. These episodes are also associated with a persistent increase in the share of income going to the top. We investigate three channels through which these impacts could occur. First, the impact of liberalization on inequality is stronger where credit markets lack depth and financial inclusion is low; positive impacts of liberalization on poverty rates also vanish when financial inclusion is low. Second, the impact on inequality is also stronger when liberalization is followed by a financial crisis. Third, liberalization seems to alter the rela…

German Bank Lending During Emerging Market Crises: A Bank Level Analysis

2007

This paper studies German bank lending during the Asian and Russian crises, using a bank level data set, which has been compiled from credit data at the Deutsche Bundesbank. Our aim is to gain more insight into the pattern of German bank lending during financial crises in emerging markets. We find that German banks reacted to the Asian crisis mainly by reallocating their portfolios among emerging markets. This behaviour is consistent with active portfolio management and does not necessarily indicate a spontaneous reaction to the Asian crisis. By contrast, the banks' behaviour during the Russian crisis is characterised by a general withdrawal from emerging markets. The use of micro data allo…

Do debt crises boost financial reforms?

2014

"Published online: 15 Aug. 2014"

Quantum macroeconomics: A tribute to Bernard Schmitt

2016

Bernard Schmitt, the founder of quantum macroeconomics, died on 26 March 2014. His legacy concerns the discovery of the logical laws of monetary macroeconomics and extends to the explanation of the origin and nature of economic and financial crises. Starting from a novel conception of bank money, he was able to show that economics is founded on true macroeconomic laws, which take the form of logical identities. This paper is a brief and necessarily incomplete introduction to the main themes of Schmitt's macroeconomic analysis. It ranges from the distinction between money and income that lies at the hearth of his theory of the circuit, to the investigation of inflation and unemployment as pa…

How Does Investor Sentiment Affect StockMarket Crises? Evidence from Panel Data

2011

Down and out in Italian towns: Measuring the impact of economic downturns on crime

2016

The paper investigates the effect of local economic conditions on crime. The study focuses on Italy’s local labor markets and analyzes the response of crime to the severe slump of 2007-2011. It shows that the downturn led to a significant increase in economic-related offenses that do not require particular criminal skills or tools (namely, thefts).

An anatomy of financial crises in Norway, 1830-2010

2014

Author's version of an article in the journal: Financial History Review. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0968565013000279 On the basis of a novel dataset, the article investigates the anatomy of financial crises in Norway from 1830 to 2010. First, nine significant crises are identified. Second, the article examines spillover effects on the real economy. We find a clear but not symmetric relationship. Third, the article investigates key patterns in credit and money volumes. Major financial crises typically occurred after substantial money and credit expansion, causing financial instability.

Interbank lending and the spread of bank failures: A network model of systemic risk

2012

We model a stylized banking system where banks are characterized by the amount of capital, cash reserves and their exposure to the interbank loan market as borrowers as well as lenders. A network of interbank lending is established that is used as a transmission mechanism for the failure of banks through the system. We trigger a potential banking crisis by exogenously failing a bank and investigate the spread of this failure within the banking system. We find the obvious result that the size of the bank initially failing is the dominant factor whether contagion occurs, but for the extent of its spread the characteristics of the network of interbank loans are most important. These results ha…