Search results for " Forecasting"
showing 10 items of 163 documents
GA-ANN for Short-Term Wind Energy Prediction
2011
Wind turbine power output is totally intermittent in the nature. For grid connected wind turbine generators, power system operators (transmission system operators) need reliable and robust wind power forecasting system. Rapid changes in the wind generation relative to the load require proper energy management system to maintain the power system stability and of course to balance the power generation, frequency, voltage regulation within the statutory limits. Accurate wind energy forecasting helps the power system transmission system operators in anticipating rapid changes in wind turbine power output with respect to load and helps in making decision not only for optimum energy management bu…
Simulation of surface energy fluxes and meteorological variables using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS): Evaluating the impact of land…
2018
Atmospheric mesoscale numerical models are commonly used not only for research and air quality studies, but also for other related applications, such as short-term weather forecasting for atmospheric, hydrological, agricultural and ecological modelling. A key element to produce faithful simulations is the proper representation of the soil parameters used in the initialization of the corresponding mesoscale numerical model. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is used in the current study. The model code has been updated in order to permit the model to be initialized using a heterogeneous soil moisture and temperature distribution derived from land surface models. Particularly, RA…
Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity
2018
Recently introduced measures for Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) included in the data from 1997 - 2016 have a role in forecasting out-of-sample values for the future real economic activity for both the euro area and the UK economies. The inclusion of EPU measures, either for the US, the UK or for overall European economies, improves the forecasting ability of models based on standard financial market information, especially for the period before the 2008 global crisis. However, during and after the crisis period, the slope of the yield curve and excess stock market returns improves the out-of-sample forecast performance the most compared to an AR-benchmark model. Hence, the EPU informatio…
Diagnostic accuracy of computed tomographic colonography for the detection of advanced neoplasia in individuals at increased risk of colorectal cance…
2009
CONTEXT: Computed tomographic (CT) colonography has been recognized as an alternative for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in average-risk individuals, but less information is available on its performance in individuals at increased risk of CRC. OBJECTIVE: To assess the accuracy of CT colonography in detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia in asymptomatic individuals at increased risk of CRC using unblinded colonoscopy as the reference standard. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a multicenter, cross-sectional study. Individuals at increased risk of CRC due to either family history of advanced neoplasia in first-degree relatives, personal history of colorectal adenomas, or positiv…
Comparing Recurrent Neural Networks using Principal Component Analysis for Electrical Load Predictions
2021
Electrical demand forecasting is essential for power generation capacity planning and integrating environment-friendly energy sources. In addition, load predictions will help in developing demand-side management in coordination with renewable power generation. Meteorological conditions influence urban area load pattern; therefore, it is vital to include weather parameters for load predictions. Machine Learning algorithms can effectively be used for electrical load predictions considering impact of external parameters. This paper explores and compares the basic Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN); Simple Recurrent Neural Networks (Vanilla RNN), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Long Short-Term Me…
The future of aortic surgery in Europe
2017
At least every ten years, each specialty should reflect upon its past, its present and its future, in order to be able to reconfirm the direction in which it is headed, to adopt suggestions from inside and outside and, consequently, to improve. As such, the aim of this manuscript is to provide the interested reader with an overview of how aortic surgery and (perhaps more accurately) aortic medicine has evolved in Europe, and its present standing; also to provide a glimpse into the future, trying to disseminate the thoughts of a group of people actively involved in the development of aortic medicine in Europe, namely the Vascular Domain of the European Association of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery …
Relative evaluation of regression tools for urban area electrical energy demand forecasting
2019
Abstract Load forecasting is the most fundamental application in Smart-Grid, which provides essential input to Demand Response, Topology Optimization and Abnormally Detection, facilitating the integration of intermittent clean energy sources. In this work, several regression tools are analyzed using larger datasets for urban area electrical load forecasting. The regression tools which are used are Random Forest Regressor, k-Nearest Neighbour Regressor and Linear Regressor. This work explores the use of regression tool for regional electric load forecasting by correlating lower distinctive categorical level (season, day of the week) and weather parameters. The regression analysis has been do…
TRAIL in cancer therapy: present and future challenges.
2007
International audience; Since its identification in 1995, TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) has sparked growing interest in oncology due to its reported ability to selectively trigger cancer cell death. In contrast to other members of the TNF superfamily, TRAIL administration in vivo is safe. The relative absence of toxic side effects of this naturally occurring cytokine, in addition to its antitumoural properties, has led to its preclinical evaluation. However, despite intensive investigations, little is known in regards to the mechanisms underlying TRAIL selectivity or efficiency. An appropriate understanding of its physiological relevance, and of the mechanisms controlling ca…
A process-based anatomy of Mediterranean cyclones: from baroclinic lows to tropical-like systems
2021
Abstract. In this study, we address the question of the atmospheric processes that turn Mediterranean cyclones into severe storms. Our approach applies on-line potential vorticity (PV) budget diagnostics and piecewise PV inversion to WRF model simulations of the mature stage of 100 intense Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the relative contributions of different processes to cyclone development and therefore deliver, for the first time, a comprehensive insight into the variety of cyclonic systems that develop in the Mediterranean from the perspective of cyclone dynamics. In particular, we show that all 100 cyclones are systematically influenced by two main PV anomalies: a major anomaly in…
Regionalizing rainfall at very high resolution over la Réunion island using a regional climate model.
2014
Abstract Regional climate models (RCMs) should be evaluated with respect to their ability to downscale large-scale climate information to the local scales, which are sometimes strongly modulated by surface conditions. This is the case for La Réunion (southwest Indian Ocean) because of its island context and its complex topography. Large-scale atmospheric configurations such as tropical cyclones (TCs) may have an amplifying effect on local rainfall patterns that only a very high-resolution RCM, forced by the large scales and resolving finescale processes, may simulate properly. This paper documents the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) RCM to regionalize rainfall…